BA has had a strong week — up nearly 5.6% to $236.87 — yet the most striking feature of the current setup is not the short book or the borrow market. It is the options market's sharp tilt toward calls, arriving at precisely the moment Trump's China visit is putting a potential Boeing order front and center.
Options positioning is the most bullish it has been in a year. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.83, nearly three standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.89 — making this the lowest defensive tilt the stock has seen over the past 52 weeks (the PCR 52-week low is 0.73, and the current reading is fast approaching it). The PCR has fallen in nine of the past ten sessions, a sustained shift away from hedging and toward directional call buying. That is a meaningful signal. Traders are not just riding the rally; they are pressing it.
The short book is rebuilding quietly, but it does not yet tell a dramatic story. Short interest has climbed around 3.4% over the week to 2.07% of free float — up from roughly 1.76% at the start of April and now at a six-week high. That 15.8% jump over the past month is notable, but with only 2% of the float short and borrow costs at just 0.44% — down nearly 10% on the week — there is no sign of a crowded or pressured short. Availability in the lending market is wide: no squeeze dynamics, no scramble for borrow. If anything, the rebuilding short book looks like a modest hedge against an extended rally rather than a structural bear position.
The Street remains constructive. Of analysts, 17 carry Buy ratings and 4 Outperform, with a mean target of $269.52 — implying roughly 14% upside from current levels. The most recent action, from Morgan Stanley in late April, nudged its target to $250 while holding Equal-Weight, a soft positive. The analyst score for divergence between consensus and current positioning ranks in the 92nd percentile, meaning the Street is materially more positive on BA than the average stock in the universe. EPS momentum over 30 days ranks in the 78th percentile, a sign estimates are moving in the right direction. The 90-day read is weaker at the 6th percentile, pointing to a concentrated burst of upgrades rather than a long-running upgrade cycle. The stock's most recent earnings print on April 22 delivered a 6.8% one-day gain — the kind of reaction that tends to suppress defensive positioning in the near term.
The China angle is the live catalyst. Trump's arrival in Beijing with a delegation of major CEOs — Boeing among the likely beneficiaries of any aviation deal — has been driving both the rally and the call-buying surge this week. The bull case rests on a resumption of Chinese aircraft deliveries, which have been frozen since the trade dispute escalated. The bear case acknowledges the risk clearly: Boeing still carries heavy debt, faces ongoing FAA scrutiny (a new airworthiness directive was issued Wednesday), and competes with Airbus for every slot in Chinese airline fleets. Any deal headline could be as much political signalling as commercial reality. Among correlated peers, SARO and ATRO both gained around 6% on the week — suggesting the broader aerospace supply chain moved in sympathy with BA's advance.
The next confirmed earnings date is July 29. Between now and then, the China trip's concrete outcome — or lack thereof — is the variable that will determine whether the call-buying conviction this week was well-placed or premature.
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