JPMorgan Chase enters the week after its Investor Day with an unusual split: options traders have turned the least defensive in over a year, yet insiders — including CEO Jamie Dimon — sold heavily into the post-earnings strength.
The options story is the standout this week. The put/call ratio has dropped sharply to 1.04, more than two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 1.11 — the lowest reading of the past year against a 52-week floor of 0.96. For context, the PCR has been running persistently above 1.1 since early April, through the tariff-uncertainty peak and the Q1 earnings release. The sudden shift signals that options traders are pulling back on downside protection at a notably unusual rate. Whether that reflects genuine bullishness or simply exhaustion of the hedging trade after a 1.6% rebound on Tuesday is the question the market is now working through.
The short interest angle is minor by comparison. SI is running at under 1% of the free float — 0.96% as of May 12 — and the borrow market offers no constraint. Cost to borrow has nearly doubled over the past week to 0.46%, the highest level in the 30-day window, but remains trivially cheap in absolute terms. Availability is extremely loose. The lending picture imposes no meaningful friction on either side of the trade.
Analysts moved target prices firmly higher after the Q1 print in mid-April. Evercore ISI lifted its target to $340 from $320 while keeping an Outperform, reversing a cut it had made just ten days earlier. Piper Sandler went to $345, Truist to $332, and Jefferies to $320 — all raises, none accompanied by rating upgrades. The mean target at approximately $342 implies roughly 12% upside from current levels near $305. The PE has compressed about half a turn over the past month to 13.4x, while price-to-book has edged down modestly to 2.21x. EPS momentum scores rank in the 70th percentile, and forward earnings estimates have risen on a year-on-year basis — the 74th percentile ranking on that metric reflects genuine expectation of continued profit growth. The dividend score, at the 96th percentile, is among the strongest in the database.
Insider activity runs counter to the bullish options read. On April 15, the day after Q1 results, Dimon sold 130,488 shares worth approximately $40 million. The CFO, COO, CRO, and several other senior executives also sold on the same date. Then on May 5 — three weeks later — the CFO, COO, and CRO each sold again, this time smaller tranches worth roughly $1–1.5 million apiece. The 90-day net insider figure shows $171.6 million in net selling. The trade significance scores are all modest at 2, consistent with pre-planned programme sales rather than discretionary calls, but the clustering and scale are worth noting as a directional signal from those closest to the business.
The stock is down 1.5% on the week and off 1.6% over the past month at $304.88, underperforming close peers: WFC fell 5.9% on the week while BAC was off 4.4%, making JPM's relative performance modestly constructive. The ORTEX short score of 30 is low and stable, consistent with the subdued short interest picture. With a confirmed event — likely the annual shareholder meeting or an investor update — slated for May 19, the next read on whether the options shift reflects real positioning change or noise arrives shortly.
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