MOWI reported its Q1 2026 results this morning to a muted market reaction — and that tension is the story for the week.
The numbers were genuinely strong. Revenue hit EUR 1.54 billion, a seasonally record high, and net income surged to EUR 154 million from just EUR 24.8 million in Q1 2025. Basic EPS came in at EUR 0.29, nearly six times the prior-year figure. Harvest volumes of 136,000 tonnes were up 26% year-on-year, beating original guidance. Production costs fell 7.3% year-over-year to EUR 5.46 per kilo. The board declared a quarterly dividend of NOK 2.30 per share. By almost any measure, the print was clean. Yet the stock closed Tuesday down 2.4% on the week, now at NOK 194.50 and roughly 10% lower over the past month. The gap between strong fundamentals and a struggling share price is where this week's note lives.
The most notable positioning development coincides precisely with the earnings release. Short interest jumped to 5.6% of free float on May 12 — up from 4.9%, a level that had been largely static for weeks. That is the highest reading in over two months, with the prior comparable level traced back to early April. The short score has climbed steadily through the past fortnight, from 53.5 at the start of May to 56.2 by Tuesday, its highest recent reading. CEO Ivan Vindheim pointed explicitly to one source of near-term pressure: industry supply growth ran at an extraordinary 14% in Q1, weighing heavily on salmon prices, particularly in the first half of the quarter. Supply growth is expected to normalise toward zero for the remainder of 2026 — but the short community appears to be pricing in continued price-per-kilo pressure before that tightening materialises. What makes the lending market notable here is not the borrow cost — at 0.68%, it remains cheap and has been essentially flat for months — but the availability picture. With 909% availability, shares are extremely easy to borrow. That means anyone wanting to build a short position faces essentially no friction in doing so, and the recent rise in SI reflects willing sellers rather than a forced repositioning.
The Street's positioning is captured clearly in the factor scores. The analyst recommendation differential ranks in the 98th percentile, the highest possible signal that consensus has been running substantially ahead of the stock price — implying accumulated analyst optimism that the market has spent months discounting. The dividend score ranks in the 94th percentile, consistent with the declared NOK 2.30 quarterly payment and a dividend yield running near 4.9% on today's price. Against that income appeal, the growth picture is more cautious: EPS momentum scores rank in the 17th–22nd percentile on both 30- and 90-day horizons, and the 12-month forward EPS year-on-year growth measure is in the 15th percentile. The P/E has compressed to 12.4x, down roughly 5% over the past 30 days, and the P/B ratio has drifted to 1.99x, down 8% over the same period. The market is paying less for the same earnings stream. The note from management was constructive — Vindheim flagged that the supply surge is now behind the industry, and that Kontali projects near-zero growth for the rest of 2026 and just 1% for 2027. Analysts willing to look through the current price noise likely find that argument compelling; the short money is betting the repricing takes time.
Ownership reinforces the narrative of stable but attentive capital. John Fredriksen controls 15.5% of shares. BlackRock added a substantial 4.2 million shares in the most recent filing period. Vanguard added 1.6 million. DNB Asset Management added 7.6 million shares through the back half of 2025. On the other side of the ledger, the most recent insider trading data — now dated (last recorded trade June 2025) — showed Fredriksen himself buying 75,000 shares at NOK 191 roughly a year ago, close to current price levels. That data is too stale to read as a current signal, but the context is instructive: the stock has gone essentially nowhere in a year while earnings have materially improved.
The next confirmed event is the Annual General Meeting on June 3, 2026, and after that, the H1 2026 results on August 19. The AGM is where the dividend will be formally ratified and volume guidance confirmed. The H1 print is the one to watch — by then, the supply normalisation thesis will either be showing up in realised salmon prices, or it won't. Between now and August, the question is less about whether Mowi can produce volumes, and more about whether the price-per-kilo recovery Vindheim is counting on actually arrives in spot markets.
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