KMDA reported Q1 2026 results this morning — and the market got a mixed message. EPS came in at $0.07, well short of the $0.12 consensus. Revenue of $45.2 million also missed the $46.7 million estimate. Yet management held its full-year sales guidance of $200–205 million and guided for a significantly stronger back half. That tension — a soft quarter against an intact annual target — frames the week's most interesting question for this stock.
The short-selling picture here is genuinely low-key, and worth framing correctly. SI stands at just 0.2% of free float, a level where bears have very little structural weight. More interesting is the direction of travel: short interest has been unwinding steadily since early April, when it touched 0.64% — itself a modest level in absolute terms but the high point of the past six weeks. By late April it had halved, and it continued drifting lower through early May before ticking up very slightly this week to 21,821 shares. That tick-up is not meaningful at this scale. Borrow costs have also eased — dropping from around 7.1% in early May to 5.3% now, the lowest they've been in six weeks. Availability is vast, with ORTEX data showing over 4,400% availability relative to short interest, meaning there are more than 44 shares available to borrow for every one currently lent out. The lending market is entirely relaxed.
The Street still sees meaningful upside from here. The analyst return potential on KMDA is 54%, a substantial gap even after the stock's 19% gain year to date and its roughly 1.7% rise on the week heading into today's print. For context, the stock closed at ILS 24.50 on Tuesday, down 2% on the day — likely pricing in some cautious pre-earnings positioning. The RSI at 53.5 is broadly neutral. The ORTEX dividend score is a standout at 78th percentile, reflecting the ILS 0.77 dividend declared in March. The short score of 29.5 is unexciting — this is not a name that attracts aggressive short-side speculation. Days to cover is just 0.3, and the DTC rank is in the 86th percentile, underscoring how thinly borrowed the name is relative to average daily volume.
Ownership is concentrated but steady. First Israel Mezzanine Investors holds 38% of shares, a cornerstone position with no reported change as of March. Phoenix Investments holds 7%, and Gandyr Investments a further 2.5% — both Israeli institutional names with stable reported positions. Among international holders, Renaissance Technologies trimmed its stake slightly to 1.45% as of year-end, while ARK Investment Management added meaningfully, nearly doubling its position to 256,000 shares (0.44%) as of March 2026. Dimensional Fund Advisors also added modestly. The insider data available in the snapshot is from 2013 and entirely stale — that angle carries no weight here.
Q4 2025 results, reported in March, showed revenue of $44.7 million against $39.0 million a year prior, with full-year revenue climbing to $180.5 million from $161 million — a 12% rise. The Q1 miss follows that stronger year-end momentum and is framed by management as a timing issue, with the heavier revenue skew expected in the back half. The one piece of historical earnings reaction data available — the Q4 print in March — saw the stock fall 1.4% the following day and 3.6% over five days. The setup for today's Q1 miss is somewhat comparable: a quiet short book, low bear positioning, but a number that disappointed.
With Q2 results expected in August, the immediate watch point is how the stock digests this morning's miss over the next few sessions — and whether the held guidance is enough to offset the EPS shortfall in investor sentiment.
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