AnaptysBio enters the post-earnings session as a stock at war with itself — fresh evidence of commercial weakness on one side, a chorus of analysts lifting targets on the other.
Q1 results released Tuesday evening were the catalyst. The company posted EPS of -$1.84 against a consensus expectation of around -$0.75, while sales of $25.6 million fell short of the $29 million the Street had pencilled in. The stock fell 3.4% on the day and is down 5.3% on the week to $65.58, extending a 6.4% slide over the past month. An additional wrinkle arrived on Monday: an 8-K disclosed a change in senior leadership, with Chris Murphy appointed as the new CFO and Owen Hughes joining the board — management transitions that rarely reduce uncertainty ahead of an earnings print.
Short interest has picked up sharply in the run-up to and through the print. The estimated short position climbed 7.5% over the past week to 16.1% of the free float — roughly 4.46 million shares — though it remains below the April peak above 4.8 million shares when rates were briefly higher. Despite the elevated SI reading, the borrow market tells a very different story: availability is exceptionally loose at 2,598% of short interest, meaning there are roughly 26 shares available to borrow for every one already lent out. Cost to borrow is running at just 0.44% APR, actually 13% cheaper than a week ago. Bears can add to positions cheaply and easily. The options market adds a cautionary note: the put/call ratio has climbed to 8.36, well above its 20-day average of 5.28, though the z-score of 0.6 keeps this well short of an extreme reading. Taken together, positioning looks wary but not crowded.
The analyst community, however, is pushing back against the gloom. This morning alone, UBS maintained its Buy rating and raised its target from $60 to $76, while Barclays simultaneously lifted its Overweight target from $63 to $75 — the second time Barclays has moved on ANAB in three weeks, having cut sharply from $79 to $63 on April 22. That April cut and a parallel UBS reduction (from $90 to $60) reflected genuine concern about near-term commercial execution. The rapid reversal after today's numbers — even with the miss — suggests the Street views the EPS shortfall as timing-driven rather than structural. The consensus among eight buy-rated analysts carries a mean target of $83.91, implying roughly 28% upside from current levels. Valuation multiples are less straightforward: the P/E has re-rated sharply over the past 30 days (up ~48 points over the period) as earnings estimates have shifted, and the EV/EBITDA of 11.3x has been compressing. The factor-score picture is mixed — EPS surprise ranks in the 88th percentile and forward EPS growth in the 85th, but near-term momentum reads (30-day and 90-day EPS momentum at the 2nd and 4th percentile respectively) signal the estimate revision cycle has been running the wrong way.
Ownership adds another layer. EcoR1 Capital holds a dominant 27.4% stake and has not adjusted its position, signalling conviction from the largest holder. Point72 trimmed by 332,000 shares in Q4 2025, while D.E. Shaw added 320,000 over the same period — hedge funds working in opposite directions. On the insider side, CEO Daniel Faga sold approximately $822,000 worth of stock in late March across multiple tranches at prices between $57 and $65, while an independent director offloaded a further ~$1.16 million. Those sales occurred before the Q1 miss and are worth noting in context, though they carry a trade significance score of just 1-3 out of 10, suggesting routine plan-based activity rather than conviction selling.
The earnings history offers a relevant frame. The last two confirmed prints — in November 2025 and March 2026 — both produced positive one-day reactions of -0.1% and +10.3% respectively, with five-day moves of -6.9% and +12.9%. The pattern suggests the first-day read is not always the final word: the November print looked flat on day one before sliding nearly 7% by day five. With a next confirmed event on May 15, how analysts and the buy side digest the revenue miss against what appears to be a maintained bull case — royalty upside from JEMPERLI, pipeline optionality in EoE and celiac disease, and the potential GSK dispute resolution — will determine whether the current short rebuild runs or reverses.
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