RJET enters its Q1 2026 earnings release today carrying a leadership transition that overshadows almost every other data point in the setup.
The company announced yesterday that Matthew Koscal — currently President — will become President and CEO on June 15, succeeding David Grizzle. The timing is striking: the succession lands just seven weeks after the print, meaning management's forward commentary will carry unusual weight as investors assess continuity and strategy under a new chief executive. Koscal already holds 385,716 shares, the largest individual insider position on the register, giving him a meaningful economic stake ahead of his formal elevation.
The ownership structure adds another layer of complexity. Three major U.S. carriers — UAL at 22.4%, AAL at 20.8%, and DAL at 14.5% — collectively own more than half the company. That captive-customer dynamic shapes the revenue model profoundly. Bulls will argue that locked-in capacity agreements with the largest names in domestic aviation provide a degree of earnings visibility that pure-play carriers can only dream of. Bears will counter that reliance on parent-airline partners caps upside, concentrates contract-renewal risk, and leaves RJET exposed to any capacity rethink at its three major customers — a real consideration given ongoing macro turbulence in the broader airline sector.
Short interest is a secondary angle here. Borrowed shares amount to roughly 480,000 — a small absolute position — and the borrow market itself is relaxed. Cost to borrow has more than halved over the past month to just 1.19%, down from peaks around 2.4% in late March. Availability is ample, and there is no evidence of squeeze pressure or meaningful short-side conviction building into the print.
Price action tells a mixed story. The stock has gained about 6% over the past month to close at $17.78, but gave back nearly 13% in the past week alone. Options markets add little signal — the put/call ratio is effectively zero, well below its already-thin 52-week high of 0.09, reflecting minimal hedging activity in what remains a thinly traded options market.
The print will therefore be tested less on headline earnings and more on how management frames the next chapter — contract trajectory, capacity commitments from the three airline parents, and the transition to Koscal's leadership — with six weeks until the new CEO takes the seat.
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