Nyxoah just delivered its strongest revenue quarter yet — then watched the stock slip anyway.
Q1 2026 results came in ahead of expectations on every key line. Revenue hit €6.37 million, up roughly sixfold year-on-year and ahead of the €7.13 million consensus in USD terms. The net loss narrowed sharply to €0.37 per share from €0.60 in Q1 2025, again beating estimates. Management lifted full-year sales guidance to €42.2–46.8 million, well above the prior €37.2 million street estimate. Despite that, the stock fell nearly 5% on the day, closing at €2.69 — a textbook "buy the rumour, sell the news" session after a 5.5% rise on the week.
The borrow market tells its own story, and it's getting more expensive to be short here. Cost to borrow jumped to nearly 30% annualised on May 12 — up 22% in a single week and 24% over the month. That spike came right alongside a sharp loosening in availability: shares available to borrow now cover 392% of current short interest, meaning the lending pool has actually expanded relative to existing shorts. The short interest itself has been quietly unwinding. SI dropped from a recent peak near 1.8% of free float in late April to just 1.1% now, as shorts covered into the print. Lending pool dynamics are therefore less about squeeze pressure and more about a repricing of borrow costs on a stock that spent most of the week running higher. The ORTEX short score has eased to 47.7 from around 58 just two weeks ago — a meaningful step back from elevated territory.
The analyst reaction split cleanly along conviction lines. Stifel moved first — downgrading to Hold and cutting its target to $5 ahead of the print. Piper Sandler held its ground, reiterating Overweight but trimming its target to $7. That $5–$7 range sits well above the current €2.69 price, so both targets imply material upside even after the recent weakness — though note that these are USD-denominated targets on a EUR-quoted stock, and the divergence in ratings reflects genuine disagreement about the commercialisation timeline rather than valuation alone. Valuation multiples are largely uninformative at this stage: the company is still loss-making, with negative P/E and P/B readings that reflect the pre-profitability growth profile. The dividend score ranks at the 89th percentile — an artefact of the screening model rather than a real income story for a company still burning cash.
The ownership picture adds context. Cochlear Limited holds 13.4% of shares and added to its position late last year — a strategic stake that aligns with the hypoglossal nerve stimulation thesis for sleep apnea. Chairman and Founder Robert Taub holds 8.6%, unchanged, while healthcare-focused specialist funds including Gilde Healthcare and Vestal Point round out the register. The insider record shows broad-based subscription participation from the management team in a November 2025 capital raise at €4.00 per share — well above current levels — with Taub himself subscribing for over a million euros' worth. The company is also presenting at the Bank of America Global Healthcare Conference this week, which likely explains some of the trading activity around the earnings print.
The next scheduled financial event is the H1 2026 results on August 5, with a shareholder meeting on June 10. With guidance now formally raised and the Q1 beat on record, attention turns to whether U.S. commercial momentum — the key driver in the earnings call narrative — can hold its trajectory into the summer print.
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