IAU heads into the post-earnings period with one of the sharpest short-covering moves of the past six weeks — and a Q1 result that came in ahead of expectations.
Short sellers have been unwinding aggressively. Short interest as a percentage of the free float has collapsed from a peak near 8.8% in late March to roughly 3.0% now — more than halved in seven weeks. The move accelerated through earnings week. Estimated short interest fell a further 6.3% over the past five days alone, with the float-adjusted figure dropping from 3.4% on May 7 to 3.0% by May 12. That retreat is meaningful context: at the March highs, the short position was large enough to matter; at current levels, it is becoming a relatively modest overhang. Borrowing costs have eased alongside it — cost to borrow has dropped nearly 29% over the past week to 0.65%, the lowest in the 30-day window, suggesting the lending market is loosening as demand for shorts dissipates. Availability has not tightened; with utilization running at a modest 34% — less than half its 52-week peak of 63% — there is no meaningful squeeze pressure in the borrow pool right now.
The catalyst is clear. Q1 2026 results, released May 12, came in ahead of estimates: adjusted EPS of -$0.03 beat the -$0.05 consensus, and revenue of $52.4 million compared with just $14 million in the same quarter last year. Management described the fully funded development plan as on track, with the Lone Tree refurbishment targeting a first pour by end-2027 and a production ambition of 150,000 to 200,000 oz/year by 2028. The stock responded — up 10.6% over the past week to CAD $2.20, compared with gains of 12–19% for close TSX peers , , and , and a 19% surge for . IAU's week-on-week move is broadly in line with the gold sector's strong tape, rather than an idiosyncratic re-rating.
The Street picture is harder to read cleanly. Analyst data in the snapshot is more than three years old and should not be treated as current guidance. On valuation, the EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed sharply — down more than 13 points over the past 30 days to 27.9x — reflecting a combination of improving EBITDA expectations and the stock's relative underperformance during Q1. The PE is deeply negative, consistent with a company still burning cash through its development phase. Factor scores point to a genuine positive surprise story: EPS surprise ranks at the 98th percentile, and forward EPS growth ranks at the 97th. The short score has drifted lower to 44.7 from 47.3 a week ago, consistent with the covering trend.
Institutional ownership adds context. Condire Investors holds 9.3% and is the largest external holder. Sprott added 5.6 million shares through Q1 2026, and Amundi initiated or substantially rebuilt a position of 10.9 million shares in the same period — both meaningful additions from resource-focused names at prices well below current levels. BlackRock added 4.8 million shares as recently as April 30. The insider picture reinforces the tone. In late March, President and CEO Richard Young bought 1 million shares at roughly CAD $1.93, a $1.4 million commitment at a time when the stock was trading near multi-month lows. Two directors also added in the same window. Net insider buying over the past 90 days totalled approximately 1.1 million shares, with all disclosed transactions being purchases and no insider selling recorded.
With the Q1 print now behind it and the next earnings event flagged for early August, attention turns to operational progress at Lone Tree and Ruby Hill, and whether production guidance for the development phase holds. Short interest is no longer the primary tension — what to watch is whether the institutional buying and CEO commitment at sub-$2 levels find confirmation in Q2 operating metrics.
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