Doximity heads into its Thursday evening earnings call carrying a heavier short burden than at any point in the past two months — and with options traders tilting decisively more bullish than usual.
Short interest has climbed sharply. The ORTEX estimate puts SI at roughly 12.9% of the free float, up nearly 16% week-on-week and 26% over the past month. That pace of short rebuilding stands out: as recently as late April, SI was running closer to 9.5% of float, and it has accelerated through the first two weeks of May. Days to cover on the FINRA settlement data has stretched to 5.4 days — meaning a meaningful short squeeze would require more than a week of average volume to clear. The lending market, however, is not signalling unusual stress. Availability remains ample and cost to borrow is still running below 0.5% annualised — well inside the range that would flag any crowding in the borrow. Short sellers are piling in, but they are doing so in a liquid, unhurried market.
Options positioning tells the opposite story. The put/call ratio has fallen to 0.57, roughly 1.5 standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.64 — the most call-skewed reading in that window. For most of April and early May, the PCR was running consistently above 0.65; the sharp drop on May 12 points to a late-arriving wave of call buying ahead of results. Bulls and bears have drawn distinct battle lines in the derivatives market.
The Street came into this earnings week having already trimmed expectations. Wells Fargo cut its target to $32 from $45 just two days ago while holding its Overweight rating — a meaningful concession from a firm still willing to stay bullish. Goldman Sachs moved to $28 in early April, and Evercore ISI downgraded to In-Line in the same stretch. The net effect: the consensus mean target has compressed to roughly $37.77, still well above the current price of $26.45, but the direction of analyst revisions has been uniformly lower since February. Bull case centres on 10% revenue growth and record physician engagement metrics. Bear case pivots on the FY Q4 guide — only ~4% growth implied, with pharma client budget freezes driving the shortfall and net revenue retention already slipping to 112% for the top 20 accounts.
The valuation context is worth noting. The P/E multiple has risen to 15.7x over the past 30 days, up more than 2 points, tracking the stock's 26% one-month bounce from post-earnings lows. The price-to-book has moved similarly, adding roughly 0.6x over the same period. The stock went out at $26.45 on Tuesday — still a far cry from the $44–45 range it traded before the February print, which delivered a 21% single-day selloff and a 30% five-day drawdown. That reaction set the floor the stock has been recovering from ever since.
Founder and CEO Jeffrey Tangney holds 27% of shares outstanding, a figure that provides structural support but also concentrates event risk. The most recent insider activity was a routine director sell from Kira Wampler on May 7 — nothing suggestive of either conviction buying or alarm selling. Peer health-care-tech names have had a rough week: CERT dropped 17.6% and DH fell 3.7%, while EVH was the outlier, gaining 6.4%. Doximity's 2.6% rise over the same five days looks relatively resilient against that backdrop.
What to watch at Thursday's print: whether management's FY Q4 revenue guide signals the pharma budget headwinds are bottoming or deepening — and how much of the current short rebuild unwinds if the actual number surprises to the upside.
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