Assertio Holdings goes into Thursday's earnings call with the stock up 25% in a month and options traders the most bullish they've been all year.
The options picture is one-sided. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 0.08, well below its 20-day average of 0.11 — close to the lowest reading of the past year. That means calls are dominating the options market by a wide margin heading into the May 15 print. There is almost no hedging activity visible, which is a striking contrast to the sharp rally already baked into the share price at $22.55.
Short interest tells a more complicated story. Bears rebuilt positions aggressively through late April, with short interest climbing from roughly 4.3% of the free float to a peak of 5.6% in early May before easing back to 5.2% this week. That mid-April jump — adding about 0.9 percentage points to short interest in under two weeks — ran squarely against the price rally. The borrow market offers shorts no particular headwind: cost to borrow is a negligible 0.70%, down sharply over the past month, and availability is extremely loose at nearly 800% of short interest. There is ample room for new shorts to enter if the earnings print disappoints. The ORTEX short score sits at 41.5, roughly the 50th percentile — a neutral read, neither crowded nor abandoned.
The Street's confidence in Assertio's ability to beat rests on a strong track record. The company ranks in the 90th percentile on EPS surprise across the universe, meaning it has a clear pattern of coming in ahead of expectations. The last two results confirmed that bias: the March 16 announcement drove the stock up 8.3% in a single session and 21% over the following five days. The May 5 release produced a more modest 2.7% day-one gain. The EV/EBITDA multiple has expanded sharply — up more than 2 turns over both the past week and the past 30 days to 7.4x — reflecting the market pricing in continued earnings momentum. The PE multiple, by contrast, has compressed nearly 19 points over the same 30-day window to 39.8x, a sign the stock's rally has outpaced near-term earnings per share projections.
Institutional ownership adds one notable concentration risk. Nantahala Capital Management holds 10.7% of shares and added 105,000 shares in the most recent quarter — making it both the dominant institutional voice and an active buyer at recent price levels. Vanguard and Opaleye Management round out the top three, but their combined weight is below Nantahala's alone. That kind of concentration can amplify moves in either direction around a catalyst. Insider activity has been limited in 2026 — the most recent trades in February were small award-related sales totalling low five figures, carrying no meaningful signal.
What to watch heading into Thursday is whether the May 15 print can sustain the cadence of the March beat or whether the 25% month-to-date rally has already absorbed whatever positive news the company can deliver.
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