Super Group (SGHC) Limited enters the post-earnings period with a striking puzzle: the stock is up 26% over the past month, yet shorts just added aggressively in the days surrounding its May results.
Short sellers moved decisively this week. Short interest as a percentage of the free float jumped from around 5.3% before the earnings event to 7.9% as of May 12 — a 50% increase in a single week. In raw share terms, borrowed positions climbed from roughly 14.2 million to 21.1 million. That is the highest short interest level in the 30-day window tracked here. The timing is pointed: the position build arrived almost simultaneously with SGHC's May 12 earnings release, suggesting some portion of those shorts were either positioned ahead of the print or initiated as a fade of the 26% monthly rally.
The lending market tells a more relaxed story, however. Borrow costs remain cheap — the cost to borrow barely registers at 0.48% annualised — and availability is running at 161% of short interest, meaning there are meaningfully more shares available to lend than are currently borrowed. That ample supply kept the short buildup frictionless; there was no squeeze pressure building against the new positions. The ORTEX short score has climbed from around 49 at the start of May to 64 today, its highest recent reading, consistent with growing bearish conviction. Yet the borrow market suggests these are fresh, deliberate bets rather than a forced or distressed position.
Options traders are nowhere near as bearish. The put/call ratio is running at just 0.038 — well below its 52-week high of 2.05 — and is only fractionally above its 20-day average of 0.033. That is one of the most call-dominated options structures in the past year. Whoever is buying options on SGHC is overwhelmingly reaching for upside, not protection. The divergence between a surging short position and an options market indifferent to downside is the central tension in this week's setup.
The Street is broadly constructive. Macquarie raised its price target to $19 (from $18) this week while holding an Outperform rating, the most recent move by a named firm. BTIG and Benchmark have maintained Buy ratings through recent quarters. The mean analyst target is $17.88, representing roughly 38% upside to the May 12 close of $12.92. Bulls point to a $2.55 billion revenue forecast for 2026, the company's diverse brand portfolio including Betway, and expanding market licences in Canada and Europe. Bears flag a structural concentration risk: Betway still shoulders most of the revenue load, and EBITDA multiple pressure could weigh on the stock if top-line growth disappoints in emerging regions. The EV/EBITDA multiple of 8.5x has actually drifted lower over the past 30 days, down about 0.3 turns, while the P/E of 16.2x has moved higher — an unusual divergence that may reflect profit composition shifting rather than a simple re-rating.
On insider activity, the picture is mixed but unremarkable. CEO Neal Menashe sold 78,530 shares at $10.71 on April 8, as did the CFO and HR Director in smaller amounts — all against a backdrop of equity awards granted on March 31. The sales are modest relative to position sizes and coincided with award vesting, so they read as routine. Menashe still holds over 10 million shares. The two dominant holders, Alea Trust (44.6%) and Chivers Trust (19.3%), both trimmed marginally in Q1 but retain overwhelming control of the float, which itself constrains the liquidity available to short sellers.
The next confirmed earnings date is August 6. Between now and then, the key question is whether the short buildup — the largest single-week position change this stock has seen in recent months — reflects a well-informed view that the rally has run ahead of fundamentals, or whether it unwinds if trading conditions for Betway's core markets hold firm through the summer calendar.
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