NUAG has put up one of the more eye-catching moves in the silver space this week — but insider selling through the run-up raises a question worth sitting with.
The stock climbed 13% over the past five sessions to CAD 8.28, extending a one-month gain of 26%. That puts it squarely in the middle of a sector-wide bid: peers AG and SVM — both among NUAG's closest correlates — rose 27% and 27% respectively on the week. PAAS added 27% too. The silver complex is being lifted broadly, and NUAG is moving with it. But the insider activity layered into this rally is harder to dismiss as routine.
Multiple insiders used the strength to sell. Director Martin Wafforn sold 45,900 shares across three transactions between May 1 and May 7, collecting roughly C$355,000. Vice President Yongming Zhang sold 40,000 shares on May 6 at C$7.98, adding to a further 120,000 shares he offloaded in April at lower prices. Combined, insiders have been net sellers of more than 200,000 shares since early April as the stock ran from the low C$6s. On a 90-day net basis, the data shows net share acquisition of 603,567 shares — largely driven by awards and the founder's large award in March — but strip those awards out and the cash-settled activity is one-directional: out.
Short interest is low enough to be a footnote here. It is running at just under 0.9% of the free float, up 15% on the week and 32% over the past month in share terms — but those percentage swings reflect a small base, not a crowding trade. The short score of 48.9 is middling. Borrow availability has actually loosened this week, with the cost to borrow easing to 4.9% from above 6% earlier in the month. There is no squeeze dynamic building, and no sign that the short book is large enough to complicate the picture.
The ownership structure explains some of the institutional patience. Silvercorp Metals holds 27% of shares. Pan American Silver holds a further 11%. Together, the two strategic blocks control nearly 40% of the register. Jupiter Fund Management and Helikon Investments hold another 12% between them. That concentration means free float is thin, which amplifies price moves in either direction — and makes the insider sales, modest in absolute terms, worth noting in context.
An earnings event is pencilled in for May 19. Past results have produced a mixed record: the stock fell 2.5% and 6.4% the day after the two most recent prints, though one of those setbacks recovered fully within the week. The valuation backdrop is unhelpful as a guide — NUAG carries negative earnings and an EV/EBITDA that reflects pre-revenue development-stage economics. The price-to-book of roughly 3.6x (on data to mid-2022) is the cleanest ratio available, and at current prices the stock is pressing the upper end of its recent range.
The setup heading into May 19 is therefore less about the fundamental print and more about whether the silver tailwind holds, and whether insider selling pressure accelerates now that the stock has cleared C$8.
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