SNDK heads into mid-May with a telling split: the stock has almost doubled in a month, yet short sellers are quietly adding to positions at the fastest rate since April began.
Short interest has climbed to roughly 8% of the free float — up from around 6.3% six weeks ago and the highest reading in the 45-day window tracked here. The move accelerated sharply this week, with SI jumping more than 11% in seven days even as the stock edged up 3.2%. That divergence — buyers and sellers both leaning in after a 70% one-month rally — is the defining tension right now. The daily estimate ticked back slightly on May 12, but the weekly trend is unambiguous: more borrowed shares are being deployed against this name. Borrow conditions do not yet reflect any strain, however. Availability remains loose, and cost to borrow is just 0.41% — cheap by any standard, even after a 32% weekly rise. The borrow market is supplying shorts easily; this is a conviction-driven rebuild, not a squeeze.
Options traders are reading the same rally with skepticism. The put/call ratio has climbed to 1.20, the highest level of the past year, and running well above its 20-day average of 1.10 — a posture that says more investors are buying downside protection than at any point in recent history. The z-score of 1.4 keeps the reading from being extreme, but the direction is clear. Defensive hedging has been building steadily since April, as the stock marched higher.
The Street's reaction to the April 30 earnings beat tells an important part of this story. Analysts across the board raised targets — Bernstein moved to $1,700 from $1,250 just last week, Susquehanna doubled its target to $2,000, and Cantor Fitzgerald lifted to $1,800. The consensus is still constructive: EPS momentum ranks in the 98th percentile of the universe, and the analyst recommendation differential scores near the top as well. Yet the ratings themselves barely budged. Most firms simply moved numbers up while holding Neutral or Equal-Weight ratings — Barclays, Wells Fargo, and RBC all fall into that camp. The mean price target of roughly $1,399 now trails the current price of $1,452, meaning the aggregate Street view is that the post-earnings re-rating has already gone far enough. The bull case centres on NAND upcycle momentum, disciplined supply, and long-term agreements with Kioxia reducing margin volatility. Bears point to potential supply increases in NAND and HDD markets and question whether premium multiples — the stock trades at a P/E near 14x and EV/EBITDA of 11.6x — are sustainable through a full cycle.
Insider activity tilts negative, though modestly. Net selling over the past 90 days totals around $11.9 million. The Chief Accounting Officer sold $2.2 million on May 8, and the CTO cleared $2.1 million in April — both at prices well below the current level, which softens the bearish read. These look more like routine liquidity events than coordinated exits. No buying has offset the flow.
The most recent earnings reaction gives context for how the market treats SNDK prints. April 30 results produced an 11.5% one-day gain and a 25.9% five-day follow-through — a substantial post-earnings bid. The prior event saw a 9.4% day-one move and a 40.7% five-day run. The pattern shows that strong prints have carried momentum well beyond the initial day. With no next earnings date confirmed, the near-term focus shifts to whether short sellers — rebuilding at the fastest pace in weeks — and options traders hedging near one-year highs of defensiveness can absorb the remaining upside priced in by the bulls. Closest US peer STX fell 3% on the day and gained 4.9% on the week; WDC dropped 5.3% on Tuesday while adding 5% over the week — similar weekly direction, but softer intraday. Overall, positioning looks more contested than crowded: the borrow market is relaxed, but the combination of rebuilding short interest and defensive options skew at all-time highs suggests the easy money from the upcycle re-rating may already be behind this trade.
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