BUDA is heading into the back half of May with momentum on two fronts: a Q1 earnings beat delivered this week and a steady retreat in short positioning over the past six weeks.
Shorts have been covering since early April, and the pace has accelerated. Short interest as a percentage of the free float dropped to 1.37% on May 12, down from a local peak of 2.4% on April 6 — nearly a halving over six weeks. The past month alone saw a 43% decline in shares short, with the most recent week adding another 12% to that decline. The absolute numbers remain small — roughly 25,000 shares — but the directional signal is clear: bearish positioning has been unwound at a meaningful clip.
The borrow market tells a more nuanced story. Cost to borrow runs at ~35% annualised, elevated for a stock this size, though it has eased from a peak near 49% in early April. Availability is not a constraint here — the lending pool is well-supplied relative to the level of short interest. The ORTEX short score is a moderate 55, consistent with a name that still attracts some bearish attention but is far from crowded territory.
The catalyst for the covering is clear. Buda Juice reported Q1 2026 results today, posting adjusted EPS of $0.05 on sales of $3.5 million. That followed a distribution expansion announcement on May 11, when the company said it was rolling out across nine new states — a meaningful footprint move for a small packaged foods brand. Last time BUDA reported (March 26), the stock barely flinched on the day (-0.1%) before recovering 6.6% over the following five sessions, a pattern suggesting traders treat the print as a launchpad rather than a hurdle. The stock is up 2.7% on the week and closed at $9.94, though it remains 4.2% below where it started a month ago.
The ownership picture is highly concentrated. Three named individuals — Bernard Nussbaumer (23.1%), Bryan Herr (21%), and Horatio Lonsdale-Hands (17.9%) — together hold more than 62% of shares. Grow Funds LLC built a 10% stake as of early January. Institutional names are present but thin: Vanguard held around 50,000 shares as of March and BlackRock entered with just over 8,000 shares as of April 30. The tight float — 1.85 million shares — means relatively small changes in demand can move the price noticeably.
The next confirmed earnings event is May 22. With today's Q1 figures freshly digested and the nine-state distribution story still unfolding, the question heading into that date is how quickly the new retail placements translate into revenue run-rate guidance.
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