PATH heads into its May 27 earnings report with one of the most heavily shorted setups in the software sector — and the bears have been adding, not covering.
Short interest has climbed to 27.1% of the free float, up from 22.5% around late April in a move that represents a near-30% jump in short share count over the past month. The ORTEX short score of 70 ranks in the 5th percentile of the universe — meaning 95% of stocks face less short pressure. This is not a stock where bears are dipping a toe in. It is the primary thesis for a large part of the active book.
The borrow market adds nuance. Cost to borrow is low at 0.67% — barely above equity financing cost — and availability, while tighter than a month ago (the CTB has risen 31% on the week), remains in a range that does not constrain new short positions. Lenders are not being stretched. The picture is a well-funded, unhurried bearish position rather than a crowded, forced trade. That matters: high short interest without tight availability is not a squeeze setup.
Options tell a different story from the shorts. The put/call ratio at 0.28 is actually running below its 20-day average of 0.31, a little under one standard deviation light on downside hedging. For a stock approaching earnings with 27% of the float sold short, the absence of aggressive put-buying is notable. Options traders appear more interested in call exposure — the PCR has traced near its 52-week low of 0.22 in recent sessions. That split between short sellers adding and options traders staying constructive is the defining tension this week.
The Street is firmly in wait-and-see mode. Sixteen of the seventeen analysts on record carry Hold or equivalent ratings, with a lone Buy. Following last March's earnings print, firms including Morgan Stanley, BMO Capital, UBS and B of A all cut price targets — the consensus mean now sits near $13.60 against a stock trading around $10. That implies meaningful upside on paper, but the distribution is tight: targets mostly cluster in the $12–$14 range, and B of A's Brad Sills maintains an Underperform. On factor scores, momentum has deteriorated sharply — from 56 in mid-April to 47 now — while growth remains the only score holding above neutral at 61. The total ORTEX stock score has drifted from 66 to 62 over the same stretch. The valuation picture shows EV/EBITDA compressing by roughly 0.9x over 30 days, consistent with a market repricing the multiple on continued execution uncertainty.
The ownership register carries one significant data point. BlackRock added 15 million shares in the period ending April 30 — bringing its stake to 7.7% of shares outstanding — while State Street added another 5 million. Founder and CEO Daniel Dines remains the dominant holder at 17.7% but trimmed around 90,000 shares in late January near $15. The CFO and General Counsel sold modestly in April at $11.10. The insider net across 90 days is technically positive at roughly $14.8m, but that figure reflects option-related activity, not discretionary buying. The C-suite sales at $11.10 — 10% above today's price — are worth noting.
The bull case rests on real numbers: 14% revenue growth, $1.85bn in ARR growing at 11%, and an expanding cohort of six-figure customers. The bear case is equally concrete: DBNRR compressing to 107%, multiple compression across the software sector, and a post-WorkFusion acquisition balance sheet that leaves limited room for error. With the next print set for May 27, the prior earnings result — a 1.9% one-day drop that recovered to a 7.4% gain over five days — frames the setup: the market punishes the initial print but has been willing to re-rate on further reflection. How ARR trajectory and DBNRR trend into that release is what repositions this stock next.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open PATH on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
