JD.com heads into its Q1 2026 results today with the stock running hot and the Street firmly in its corner.
The price action alone frames the setup. JD surged 7.2% on Wednesday and is up 10% for the week, adding 17% over the past month to reach $33.77. That momentum stands apart from its closest peers: BABA slipped 1.8% on Wednesday, PDD fell 3.1%, and VIPS was nearly flat. JD is moving on its own terms. Options traders reflect the bullish tone — the put/call ratio has edged below its 20-day average of 0.64 to 0.62, sitting roughly 1.1 standard deviations below the norm. That's call-side activity dominating, not a defensive hedge.
Short sellers tell a quieter story, and that's noteworthy context. The lending market is wide open — borrow availability remains ample and cost to borrow sits at just 0.54%, up modestly from last week but barely registering as a friction cost. Short interest peaked sharply in early April, when shares borrowed briefly spiked to nearly 37 million on April 9 during the height of tariff-driven China-ADR volatility. Since then, shorts have retreated steadily. The ORTEX short score has eased from 45.3 on May 1 to 42.0 now — moving in the right direction for longs, though still in moderate territory.
The analyst community has turned constructive with fresh conviction. Both Bernstein and Benchmark lifted their price targets on May 13 — to $40 and $42 respectively — maintaining Outperform and Buy ratings just hours before the print. Barclays had already moved its target to $41 in mid-April. The consensus stands firmly at Buy, with 27 buy recommendations and analyst return potential of 27% based on individual targets. The bull case centres on JD's revenue trajectory — 15.8% year-over-year growth in the most recent quarter exceeded consensus by a meaningful margin — and improving user engagement in its supermarket segment. Bears focus on margin drag: heavy subsidies and lower order density than rivals have pushed net profit margin forecasts for FY25 down to 3.9%, and earnings forecasts have been revised lower even as revenue expectations rise. At a trailing P/E of 8.6x and EV/EBITDA of 6.7x, valuation is undemanding by almost any measure — which dulls the bear case on price but sharpens the focus on whether profitability is moving in the right direction.
The last time JD reported, in early March, the stock gained 6.4% on the day and extended that to 10% over the following week. Today's print will test whether the revenue momentum story can survive a closer look at the margin line — and whether the subsidy-driven growth model is beginning to show signs of cost discipline.
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