PMV Pharmaceuticals heads into its May 15 earnings print having dropped 9% in a single session Wednesday, with short sellers building positions at the fastest monthly rate in recent memory.
The most striking feature of the setup is how aggressively shorts have accumulated over the past month. Short interest has climbed roughly 71% over the past 30 days to nearly 4.8% of the free float — a meaningful move for a small-cap biotech trading near $1.29. The weekly build of 11% adds another layer: this is not a slow drift but an accelerating conviction trade against the stock. Despite that, the borrow market remains relaxed. Cost to borrow is just 0.64%, and availability is well above 1,000%, meaning there is no friction in sourcing shares. Shorts face no squeeze pressure heading into the print — the lending pool is essentially open.
Options positioning tells a different story. Call demand is overwhelming: the put/call ratio is at its 52-week low of 0.0053, running below its 20-day average, and nearly a full standard deviation below it. The 52-week high for the PCR was 5.14 — a staggering contrast to where it is now. That extreme skew toward calls suggests that whatever options market participants are playing for, it is not downside protection. The divergence between rising short interest and call-heavy options activity is the central tension in this setup.
Analyst sentiment has tilted cooler right ahead of the print. Oppenheimer lowered its price target from $6 to $5 yesterday — while keeping an Outperform rating — the freshest move from any covered firm. The consensus target of $4.50 implies substantial upside from the current $1.29, but that gap reflects the market's persistent skepticism about pipeline timelines rather than an imminent catalyst consensus. Coverage is thin, and older notes from HC Wainwright and Jefferies holding $5 Buy targets predate the most recent leg down by over a year; those figures are better treated as background than fresh guidance.
On the ownership side, the largest holder BML Capital Management added over 1.8 million shares in the most recent quarter, taking its stake to nearly 10%. Sio Capital also added meaningfully. That accumulation from specialist healthcare funds at current levels is a counterweight to the short buildup — and indicates that informed longer-term holders see something worth owning below $1.30.
Tomorrow's report tests whether the pipeline progress that specialist buyers are pricing in can arrest a short thesis that has grown 70% in a month — and whether the options market's near-complete absence of put buying reflects confidence or simply a lack of liquid two-sided flow in a thinly traded name.
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