XPEV heads into its May 18 Q1 earnings call with the lending market under significant stress — short sellers are locked in, availability has nearly vanished, and cost to borrow is climbing fast.
The clearest tension is in the borrow market. Nearly every share available to lend has been taken out, with the lending pool running at roughly 1% availability — a reading that has been pinned near zero for most of the past two weeks. At that level, there is almost nothing left for new shorts to borrow. Cost to borrow has jumped more than 52% over the past week alone, reaching 1.45%. That is not a distressed level by itself, but the direction of travel — up 44% over the past month — signals growing demand for short exposure into the print. Short interest is running at approximately 6.9% of the free float, with around 48.7 million shares short. The position has eased slightly from a peak near 51 million shares at the start of May, though it remains well above late-April levels, when borrowing costs were materially softer. Days to cover stands at 8.3, meaning any meaningful covering would take time to execute.
The analyst debate has turned more cautious since the last quarterly result. In late March, Barclays lowered its price target to $16 — barely above the current price of $16.12 — while maintaining an Underweight rating. Macquarie downgraded the stock to Neutral in the same period, trimming its target to $19 from $24. That double-move from two active EV-sector watchers marked a clear shift in tone after a period of relative optimism through mid-2025. Bulls can point to analyst consensus that still shows meaningful return potential, and the EPS momentum 30-day factor scores near the 95th percentile of the universe — a signal that near-term earnings estimates have been moving up. Bears, however, note the contrasting 90-day EPS momentum rank of just 3, the lowest end of the universe, suggesting the short-run uplift sits on top of a longer run of estimate deterioration. The EV/EBITDA multiple is 61.6x and has risen sharply on the week, adding to valuation sensitivity heading into the report. Note that the analyst consensus price target of ~$166 in the snapshot appears to reflect a data mismatch — likely a combination of different listing prices or stale inputs — and has been excluded from this analysis.
A fresh strategic angle adds colour to the setup. Reports emerged May 14 that XPeng is in talks with Volkswagen to acquire a European factory, a move that would mark a significant step in the company's push beyond China at a time when domestic EV growth is under pressure. Bulls will watch whether management addresses that ambition on the call; bears will question the capital implications. The most comparable peer, NIO, fell 4.4% Thursday — in line with XPEV's own 3.4% pullback — suggesting the sector-wide move was macro rather than idiosyncratic. Options positioning offers no strong directional signal, with the put/call ratio at 0.53, essentially flat with its 20-day average, suggesting the options market has not taken a strong view ahead of the release.
The May 18 print will test whether XPeng's delivery momentum and gross margin trajectory can support a valuation that looks stretched, in a borrow market that has left almost no room for new shorts to add pressure.
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