Fortress Biotech heads into its Q1 2026 print with one of the most elevated short positioning profiles among small-cap biotechs.
Short sellers are heavily committed. At 14.6% of free float, short interest is material and has climbed roughly 14% over the past month — even as it eased slightly over the last week, slipping 5.5% from its peak. The ORTEX short score has been locked near 82 out of 100, a percentile rank in the bottom 2% for short risk across the entire universe. Days to cover run at 7.7 on the ORTEX estimate and 17.8 by the official FINRA settlement measure — either way, a meaningful overhang. The cost to borrow has eased from a mid-April peak above 15% to roughly 12%, suggesting a modest reduction in borrow demand, but it remains elevated for a micro-cap name. Borrow availability sits at around 70% of the lending pool in use — not at crisis levels but comfortably tight, well below the 52-week high utilization of 97%.
Options traders are not amplifying the bearish conviction. The put/call ratio is running at 0.58, almost exactly in line with its 20-day average and only a third of a standard deviation above it. The 52-week range for PCR extends from 0.03 to 0.71, which puts the current reading near the middle of the annual band — more neutral than defensive. That contrast with the heavily short register is notable. Short sellers are committed; options players are not piling on.
The bull case rests primarily on analyst consensus, which remains unanimously positive on paper — all firms covering the stock rate it Buy. HC Wainwright's last reiteration in February maintained a $17 target against a stock now trading at $2.30. That gap should be treated with caution: the consensus as-of date is November 2025, and the most recent target update from Wainwright — lowering from $26 to $17 — occurred in August 2025. The implied return potential of 382% reflects the arithmetic of a stock that has fallen 39% year-to-date against targets set before the decline deepened. With estimated revenue of roughly $82 million and a net loss of around $25 million, Fortress is a pre-profitability name where progress on its royalty and licensing pipeline matters more than headline financials. Bears focus on the persistent cash burn, the high interest expense of ~$9.3 million, and a market cap that has compressed to around $75 million.
Past earnings reactions have been inconsistent. Two of the last four post-report sessions saw meaningful declines — an 8.5% drop in March 2026 and a 2.9% fall after the April 2026 event — while the November 2025 print produced a rare 4.8% gain. The stock is off 5% on the week heading in. Today's print is less a valuation test and more a referendum on whether the pipeline narrative can hold against what the short book has already concluded.
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