Options traders are making the most aggressive bullish bet on BTI in a year. The put/call ratio hit 0.40 — a 52-week low — even as short sellers quietly rebuild positions and the cost to borrow climbs. The divergence is sharp.
BTI's PCR dropped to 0.4034 on May 14, the lowest reading in 52 weeks. That compares to a 20-day mean of 0.467. The gap is 3.1 standard deviations below average — a statistically extreme skew toward calls.
The stock has given bulls plenty of reason to act. BTI is up 14.8% over the past week and 13.6% over the past month. The price closed at $66.70 on May 14. That rally appears to be fuelling conviction in the options market rather than prompting caution.
Not everyone is convinced. Short interest rose 12.3% in a single day on May 14, reaching 8.1 million shares. Over the past week, that's an 11.9% increase.
One month ago, short interest stood considerably higher — around 12 million shares in mid-April — before dropping sharply. The recent uptick suggests some short sellers are returning after covering earlier positions.
The borrow market is reflecting that renewed demand. Cost to borrow rose 65% over the past week to 0.60%. That's the highest level since early April. Despite the jump, the absolute cost remains modest — 0.60% annualised is not a punishing rate. Availability remains relatively loose, consistent with low overall utilisation of the lending pool.
Major institutional holders have been adding shares. BlackRock increased its position by 17.3 million shares in its most recent filing. FMR (Fidelity) added 22.5 million. Capital Research, already the largest holder at 17% of shares, added a further 6.7 million.
That pattern of institutional accumulation aligns with the bullish options posture. Analyst sentiment also leans positive — Argus Research upgraded the stock to Buy in September 2025, setting a $62 target. Jefferies initiated coverage with a Buy the same month. BTI's next scheduled earnings event is July 30.
What to watch: Whether the options skew sustains below 0.45 into the July earnings period, and whether the renewed short position continues to grow as borrow costs inch higher.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Put/Call Ratio | 0.40 (52-week low) |
| PCR Z-Score | –3.1 std devs |
| Short Interest (May 14) | 8.14M shares (+12.3% day) |
| Cost to Borrow | 0.60% (+65% week) |
| Price (May 14 close) | $66.70 (+14.8% week) |
| Next Earnings | 30 July 2026 |
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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