Options traders are the most bullish on F they've been in two years. That signal sits alongside rising short interest and a cost-to-borrow that has jumped 63% in a week — a rare three-way convergence on the Detroit automaker.
Ford's put/call ratio hit 0.81 on May 14 — the lowest reading in 52 weeks and a new 2-year low. The 20-day mean sits at 0.94. The z-score of -2.70 places current options sentiment nearly three standard deviations below its recent average. Calls are dominating the options market by a wide margin. That shift in positioning coincides with Ford's stock rallying 19% over the past week to $14.48.
Not everyone is chasing the rally. Short interest stands at 3.6% of free float — the highest level since early April. Shares short rose roughly 13% in the week to May 13 before easing back slightly. The ORTEX short score has dropped to 33.1 from 37.5 earlier in the week, reflecting some short covering as the stock climbed. Bears and bulls are pulling in opposite directions.
The cost to borrow Ford shares reached 0.72% on May 14 — up 63% over the past week and 58% over the past month. In absolute terms, it remains low. But the rate of change is notable. Demand for borrows is rising as short sellers attempt to maintain or build positions into a sharply rising stock. Availability remains wide, meaning the lending market is not yet stressed. The squeeze dynamic hasn't arrived. But the tightening is visible.
Wall Street has not caught up with the move. Morgan Stanley reiterated an Equal-Weight rating with a $14 target on May 13 — effectively in line with the current price. Citigroup and TD Cowen both lowered targets to $13 earlier this month. UBS holds a lone Buy rating with a $14 target. The consensus mean price target sits at $13.70 — below where Ford is trading right now. Ford's EPS surprise factor scores in the 94th percentile, and 30-day EPS momentum ranks in the 86th. The fundamentals have run ahead of analyst models.
The next earnings event is July 27. Between now and then, the tension between bullish options positioning and a still-elevated short base will be the key dynamic. Watch whether the put/call ratio holds at these lows, and whether cost to borrow continues climbing as shorts defend positions into a stock that has already outrun most price targets.
Data summary
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