Options traders are pricing in more pain for DXCM. Three bearish signals converged this week — rising short interest, a spiking put-call ratio, and a higher cost to borrow — all arriving just 12 days before DexCom's next earnings date.
The put-call ratio jumped to 1.07 on May 14. That's the highest reading in 52 weeks. The 20-day average sits at 0.86 — making Thursday's print a z-score of 2.84. In plain terms: options traders are buying protective puts at an unusually heavy rate. The stock has fallen 8.4% over the past month. The PCR spike suggests that hedging — not speculation — is driving the flow.
Short interest reached 4.81% of free float as of May 14. That's up 18% week-on-week and 15.6% over the past month. Bears have added roughly 2.6 million shares to their short position in one week. Availability in the lending market remains very loose — the borrow pool is far from stressed. But the cost to borrow has risen 59% over the same week to 0.44% annualised. That's low in absolute terms, though the pace of the move signals accelerating demand for borrows.
Most recent analyst actions cut targets. Citigroup lowered its price target to $79 from $84. TD Cowen moved to $75 from $84. Barclays — the sole Underweight — trimmed to $67. Canaccord Genuity bucked the trend, raising its target to $100. The consensus mean sits at $83.16, implying roughly 44% upside from the current $57.82 close. That gap between sell-side optimism and market pricing is itself a tension worth watching.
Earnings land May 27. The last print on April 30 moved the stock +6.6% on the day. With the PCR at annual highs and short interest still building, any downside miss risks amplifying the move. Bears are positioned. Bulls are counting on the upside case — strong CGM penetration in Type 2 diabetes and improving margins — to reassert itself.
Data summary
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