DXCM bears pile in ahead of May 27 earnings

Options traders are pricing in more pain for DXCM. Three bearish signals converged this week — rising short interest, a spiking put-call ratio, and a higher cost to borrow — all arriving just 12 days before DexCom's next earnings date.

PCR hits a 52-week extreme

The put-call ratio jumped to 1.07 on May 14. That's the highest reading in 52 weeks. The 20-day average sits at 0.86 — making Thursday's print a z-score of 2.84. In plain terms: options traders are buying protective puts at an unusually heavy rate. The stock has fallen 8.4% over the past month. The PCR spike suggests that hedging — not speculation — is driving the flow.

Short interest builds, borrow cost follows

Short interest reached 4.81% of free float as of May 14. That's up 18% week-on-week and 15.6% over the past month. Bears have added roughly 2.6 million shares to their short position in one week. Availability in the lending market remains very loose — the borrow pool is far from stressed. But the cost to borrow has risen 59% over the same week to 0.44% annualised. That's low in absolute terms, though the pace of the move signals accelerating demand for borrows.

Analysts split on where the stock goes next

Most recent analyst actions cut targets. Citigroup lowered its price target to $79 from $84. TD Cowen moved to $75 from $84. Barclays — the sole Underweight — trimmed to $67. Canaccord Genuity bucked the trend, raising its target to $100. The consensus mean sits at $83.16, implying roughly 44% upside from the current $57.82 close. That gap between sell-side optimism and market pricing is itself a tension worth watching.

What to watch

Earnings land May 27. The last print on April 30 moved the stock +6.6% on the day. With the PCR at annual highs and short interest still building, any downside miss risks amplifying the move. Bears are positioned. Bulls are counting on the upside case — strong CGM penetration in Type 2 diabetes and improving margins — to reassert itself.

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Data summary

• SI % FF: 4.81% — up 18% week-on-week
• Cost to borrow: 0.44% APR — up 59% over one week
• Put-call ratio: 1.07 — z-score 2.84, 52-week high
• Price: $57.82 — down 8.4% over one month
• Next earnings: May 27, 2026
• Consensus price target: $83.16 (Citigroup $79, TD Cowen $75, Canaccord $100, Barclays $67)