Amer Sports reports Q1 results on May 19 having lost nearly 10% in the past month and 9% in the past week alone, arriving at $32.84 — well below its 52-week peak and roughly 33% below the analyst consensus target of $48.92.
Options markets have turned notably more defensive into the print. The put/call ratio jumped to 0.74 on May 15, almost two standard deviations above its 20-day average of 0.38. That's a sharp pivot from a period in late April when the ratio was running as low as 0.16 — close to its 52-week floor of 0.15. The shift captures a clear directional change in how the options market is positioning for the release.
Short interest at 2% of the free float is modest in absolute terms, and the lending market confirms there is no squeeze pressure whatsoever. Availability is extraordinarily loose — available shares for borrowing represent more than 3,200% of current short interest, far above the level that would indicate any constraint. Cost to borrow has actually eased over the week to 0.42%, down 14%. Shorts covered aggressively last week, with estimated short shares falling 11% over the five days to May 14. The lending picture is the opposite of a squeeze setup.
The bull case rests on the growth profile of Arc'teryx in China, where the brand has compounded at 43–57% over six consecutive quarters and accounts for roughly 70% of the region's sales. The broader stock reflects that bet: even after the recent slide, analysts maintain a wall of constructive ratings — Evercore ISI, UBS, Barclays and JPMorgan have all held or lifted targets in recent months, with UBS last raising to $60 in February. The bear case centres on debt (still at $1.7 billion post-IPO) and low brand awareness for Arc'teryx outside its core markets, which could limit the addressable market faster than the China growth story implies. The last quarterly print, in February, saw the stock fall 6.5% on the day and extend losses to 8.8% over the following five sessions — a reaction that still hangs over the setup. The peer group also sold off hard this week, with losing 21% and falling 12%, suggesting broad sector pressure that is not immune to, though bucked the trend with a 5.7% weekly gain.
Tuesday's earnings report is therefore a test of whether Arc'teryx's China momentum has held through the first quarter of 2026 at a rate that can close the gap between a $32 stock and a Street that still prices it closer to $49.
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