CEL-SCI Corporation has just gone through one of the most violent short-interest cycles seen in a micro-cap biotech this year — and with earnings four days away, the dust is far from settled.
The short side of CVM exploded in early May. Short interest as a percentage of free float climbed from around 10% at the end of April to a peak of 50% on May 12 — a fivefold build in roughly two weeks. Availability collapsed to zero on May 12, meaning every available share in the lending pool had been lent out. Then, in two trading sessions, the position unwound almost entirely: by May 14, short interest had fallen back to 8.2% of the float, its lowest level since late April. The speed of that reversal — an 80% week-on-week drop in shares short — points to a covering scramble rather than an orderly exit.
The borrow market tells a more complicated story, though. Cost to borrow was running below 10% as recently as May 4. It then erupted: 66% on May 5, 100% on May 6, 312% on May 7, and a peak of 625% on May 12. Even after the short interest collapse, CTB remains at 310% — more than 80x where it was three weeks ago. That gap between a normalising short position and a still-extreme borrow cost suggests the lending market has not fully reset. Availability has recovered to roughly 284% of current short interest, signalling that borrow supply has returned — but the premium lenders are still charging reflects how raw the squeeze episode was. The CEO stepped into this chaos: Geert Kersten bought 100,000 shares on May 13 at $1.19, adding $119,000 to a position he had also been building in January. That is the single largest open-market purchase in the recent trade log.
There are no bellwether analyst ratings to cite — the only price target on record ($25.00) is from early March and should be treated as historical context only, given the stock closed at $1.43 on May 15. The stock has fallen 67% over the past month and 16% over the past week, though Friday's session printed a 10% bounce. The ORTEX short score has retreated sharply from its 99.9 peak on May 11 to 70 as of May 14, tracking the short position unwind. Peers ESLA and INDP were both down 12-15% on the week, suggesting sector-level pressure has been broad rather than specific to CVM's squeeze dynamics.
The CEO's buying cluster is notable in context. Kersten bought in December 2025, January 2026, and again on May 13 — three purchases at progressively lower prices as the stock slid from $6 toward $1. Institutional ownership is thin: the largest named holder controls 6.9% of shares and last reported in August 2025. Vanguard added 8,100 shares in Q1 2026 but holds less than 4%. At this cap size, insider conviction carries more signal weight than institutional flow.
Past earnings events at CVM have produced swings in both directions. The February 20 release triggered an 8% single-day loss and an 12% five-day loss. The December 2025 print saw an 11% gain on the day that extended to a 27% five-day gain. The May 20 release arrives with short interest normalised but borrow still extraordinarily expensive, a CEO who just bought on the open market, and a stock that has shed two-thirds of its value in a month — the outcome of that print will determine whether the borrow market's residual tension was justified.
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