IDACORP heads into a Q2 earnings date with a fresh dilution overhang — and a short-seller community that has been quietly rebuilding positions all month.
The headline this week is the company's announcement of an at-the-market equity offering of up to $600 million, filed after the close on May 15. That follows a $300 million follow-on offering completed in late March. Two equity raises in two months, even at a measured pace, places steady downward pressure on the share count and shifts the burden back onto management to demonstrate that capital deployment is translating into growth. The stock is already down 2.8% on the week to $139.96, underperforming several close peers — Pinnacle West lost only 0.9% over the same period, and Alliant Energy fell 1.2%.
Short sellers have been adding exposure throughout May, and the ATM announcement gives that conviction fresh context. Short interest in IDA has risen 14% over the past month to 8.2% of free float — a level that is meaningfully elevated for a regulated utility, a sector where 2-3% is closer to the norm. The ORTEX short score reached 69 on May 14, up from 63 a week earlier. That puts it in roughly the top 4th percentile of its sector on short positioning, a sharp distinction from most utility peers. Borrow availability remains comfortable — cost to borrow is only 0.48% and has been stable — so this is conviction-driven selling rather than a technically squeezed position. Shorts are not being forced in by tight inventory; they are choosing to be there.
The options market, by contrast, tells a somewhat calmer story. The put/call ratio has actually eased in recent weeks to 0.91, sitting below its 20-day mean of 1.11 and slightly below the long-run mid-point. Through most of April the PCR ran well above 1.5, reflecting heavy demand for downside protection. The move lower in the ratio suggests that fear of a near-term drop has faded since the Q1 print — even as the equity offering reintroduces an overhang. It's a divergence worth watching: short sellers are growing more bearish while options traders have stepped back from hedging.
The analyst community remains broadly constructive, though the Street has clearly had to recalibrate. Barclays raised its target to $167 from $159 just last week, maintaining Overweight — the third target lift from that desk since January. Morgan Stanley kept its Overweight rating but nudged its target down to $158 from $160 in late April. The consensus mean sits at $154.56, implying roughly 10% upside to the current price. Bulls point to 2.6% customer growth in Idaho Power's service territory and the company's track record of consistent EPS beats — the factor score on earnings surprise ranks in the 76th percentile. The bear case centres on rate case risk, a lower capex trajectory, and now the dilution runway opened by consecutive equity offerings. The P/E ratio of 21.6x has compressed nearly 4% over the past month, a quiet re-rating that aligns with the directional move in the stock.
Institutionally, ownership is stable and index-heavy — BlackRock holds 12% and Vanguard holds nearly 11%. Capital Research added nearly 888,000 shares as of the end of Q1, the most notable active-manager inflow in the holder table. Insider activity offers little signal in either direction; the most recent transactions, from March, were small VP-level sells at prices close to today's. The 90-day net insider position is modestly positive in share count terms, but the values involved are too small to shift the narrative.
IDA next reports Q2 results on May 21 — just days away. After Q1, when the stock gained roughly 2% on the day but gave back the move over the following week, the setup into this print is arguably more complex: an ATM offering has reset the share count conversation, short positioning is at a multi-month high, and analyst targets cluster well above the current price. The gap between where the Street sits and where the stock is trading makes the tone of Q2 guidance — and any commentary on the pace of the ATM drawdown — the key variable to watch.
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