Modine Manufacturing heads into its May 20 fiscal Q4 report with a notable short position that quietly grew over the past week — even as analysts remain firmly constructive.
The most striking signal in the positioning data is a sharp one-week build in short interest. SI climbed 12.4% over the past seven sessions to 6.7% of the free float, a meaningful move that reverses a longer-term decline — down 14.5% over the prior month. The build coincides with a 7.2% single-day drop in the stock on May 15, leaving shares at $271.26, though MOD has still gained roughly 7% over the past month. Despite the fresh short interest, borrow conditions remain relaxed. Cost to borrow is just 0.45% and availability at 167% means there are nearly 1.7 shares available to lend for every share currently shorted — well clear of any squeeze pressure.
Options positioning has also turned more defensive. The put/call ratio has edged up to 0.47, about one standard deviation above its 20-day average of 0.42. That is mild by most standards — the 52-week high is 0.88 — but the direction of travel mirrors the short interest build: investors are adding downside protection as the print approaches.
Bulls have a strong fundamental case to hold. EPS estimate momentum has been exceptional, ranking in the 96th percentile over 90 days and the 88th percentile on forward EPS growth. The stock's data-centre angle — heat rejection systems priced at premium for AI rack cooling — gives it a structural growth narrative that analysts have been quick to endorse. Coverage has been uniformly positive in recent months, with initiations from GLJ Research ($290 target) and Roth Capital ($263) both at Buy, and DA Davidson maintaining its Buy with a $265 target as recently as late March. The mean consensus target of $265.57 sits close to the current price, suggesting the Street sees fair value near here rather than material upside at current levels.
Bears are focused on valuation. The stock trades at 34.8x trailing earnings with an EV/EBITDA of 21.6x — multiples that have expanded roughly 16% over the past 30 days. The EPS surprise factor score ranks in only the 5th percentile, a reminder that despite strong estimate momentum the company has not been a consistent beat-and-raise story. The CFO sold over $4.2 million in shares in February at prices between $217 and $222, well below where the stock trades today, though these sales predate the recent run and may reflect routine planning. The independent board chair also sold $2.8 million in late February.
Past prints have been unambiguously positive for the stock. The last three events produced same-day gains of roughly 3–11%, with five-day follow-through of 8–22%. That track record sets a high bar for the May 20 release.
The print is therefore less a test of whether Modine's data-centre exposure is real and more a test of whether the underlying margin profile and revenue trajectory justifies a multiple that has re-rated sharply higher — even as short sellers quietly disagree.
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