Insulet Corporation reports Q1 results on May 20 with the stock down 27% in a month and the Street scrambling to reset expectations — the real question tomorrow is whether the guidance floor has finally been set.
The options market says investors are not particularly defensive heading into the number. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.75, well below its 20-day average of 0.86 and near the 52-week low of 0.62 hit last Friday. That tilt toward calls is striking given the share-price collapse — it points to positioning that is more hopeful than fearful, at least in the options book. The lending market offers no complicating signal: borrow availability is exceptionally loose, with tens of millions of shares available relative to the roughly 2.9 million currently shorted. At 0.38%, cost to borrow is near a monthly low. Short interest itself has risen about 10% over the past week to 4.1% of free float — notable, but not extreme. The shorts are building, but they are not crowding.
The analyst debate has narrowed to one thing: how much damage did guidance do, and can management repair it? Every major firm cut its target in the wake of the last print, and none abandoned its positive rating. JP Morgan trimmed from $340 to $275 while keeping Overweight. B of A, the most recent mover, slashed from $288 to $208 yesterday and kept its Buy — a 28% cut that still leaves the target 41% above the current price of $147. The consensus mean target of $247 implies roughly 67% upside, which sounds generous but reflects a Wall Street that has not yet reset its growth expectations fully. Bulls point to the Omnipod 5 automated insulin delivery system as a durable growth engine with an expanding type 2 diabetes population. Bears flag deceleration driven by insurance deductible resets, ACA subsidy headwinds, and tougher year-over-year volume comparisons — structural pressures that a single quarter cannot resolve. The EPS momentum factor scores (72nd and 76th percentile on 30-day and 90-day bases) suggest the earnings revision trend has been stable, not deteriorating sharply, which gives the bull case some quantitative backing.
Insider activity adds a cautionary footnote. CEO Ashley McEvoy sold 1,411 shares on May 13 at $148.84. That came on top of a cluster of executive sales in late February at prices around $247 — near what is now a distant-seeming high. The trades are small in dollar terms and likely programmatic, but the direction is consistent: no insider has purchased shares in the visible window.
The print tomorrow is less a test of whether Insulet can grow and more a test of whether management can draw a credible line under the guidance reset — and whether the 70% gross margin and recovering cash flow are enough to justify a stock that still carries a P/E above 120 on trailing earnings.
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