FUTU enters its May 22 Q1 2026 earnings report having shed 17% in a month — and options traders are responding by piling into puts at a historically elevated pace.
The most striking pre-earnings signal is in options. Demand for downside protection has surged well above its recent norm: the put/call ratio hit 2.83 on May 15 — the highest reading in the past year — and eased only slightly to 2.43 by May 18, still running well above its 20-day average of 1.95. That level of protective positioning is unusual even by Futu's standards, and it has persisted for more than a week rather than spiking and reversing. The broader price context reinforces the caution: the stock closed Friday at $134.64, down nearly 7% on the week and off 17% over the past month, while closest peer TIGR fell a similar 4.6% on the week — suggesting sector-wide pressure rather than stock-specific capitulation.
Short interest, by contrast, is not the story here. Bears have a relatively modest 2.5% of the free float shorted, a level that has been broadly stable over the past six weeks. Borrowing is cheap at 0.45% annually, and availability is wide — roughly 826% of shares already short are still available to borrow — meaning the lending market exerts no meaningful squeeze pressure. Short sellers are not aggressively positioning for a collapse; the put-heavy options market is doing that work instead.
The analyst community remains broadly constructive but has quietly trimmed ambitions. Barclays cut its target to $200 from $236 in March — maintaining its Overweight rating — after a period of steady target upgrades through the second half of 2025 from Barclays, JPMorgan, and BofA. Targets from that cluster of buy-side upgrades ran as high as $270, suggesting the current price of $134 represents a significant discount to even the more cautious targets. Futu's forward earnings yield — around 9.5% — and a PE multiple that has contracted nearly three points over the past month point to a stock that has de-rated meaningfully into the print, even as 90-day EPS momentum ranks in the 78th percentile and the company's EPS surprise history ranks in the 98th percentile of the universe. The disconnect between strong fundamental delivery and a falling multiple is the tension the print must resolve.
Ownership adds one notable data point. Aspex Management added over 1.2 million shares in Q1, while Capital Research bought more than 600,000. Citigroup's reported position climbed by 1.75 million shares. Goldman Sachs added nearly 900,000. Against that, Hillhouse — a long-standing China-focused fund — trimmed by 210,000 shares, as did Morgan Stanley and a handful of others. The net picture is institutional buying into the selloff, not capitulation. Moomoo's US arm received regulatory approval to launch a prediction market product in May, and Moomoo Canada partnered with Nasdaq on a live trading competition — small operational beats that have done little to stem the share-price slide.
The May 22 print will test whether Futu's persistent ability to beat estimates can override a market that has already moved to price in significant doubt.
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