SOPA heads into its May 21 earnings print having shed more than half its value in a single week — and short sellers have piled in at a pace that makes the positioning story almost as dramatic as the price action.
Short interest is the standout here. It has tripled in one week — up 201% — and now covers nearly 15% of the free float, a level that, for a stock already trading at $0.17, signals aggressive bearish conviction. The move over the past month is even starker: short interest has risen more than 700% since mid-April. That's not incremental position-building — it's a rush. The ORTEX short score has climbed to 61.3 from around 52 just two weeks ago, tracking the acceleration in borrowed shares.
The borrow market is more nuanced. Availability has tightened meaningfully over the past month — from well above 1,000% in early April to around 109% now — meaning the lending pool has contracted sharply relative to what shorts are borrowing. That said, 109% availability still means roughly one spare share for every one already lent, so there is no immediate squeeze pressure. Cost to borrow has actually eased, falling to 7.3% from above 29% in early April — a sign that while demand for borrows spiked, supply has kept pace. The stock itself closed at $0.17, down 38% on its last trading day and 55% on the week.
The fundamental debate is hard to frame cleanly because key data points are stale or inconsistent. The sole analyst covering SOPA — Ascendiant Capital's Edward Woo — raised his target to $22.50 in December 2025 and has maintained a Buy rating throughout. But that target, against a current price of $0.17, implies a gap of more than 100x that cannot be reconciled with the recent trading. The data should be treated with caution; it may reflect pre-reverse-split pricing or other structural factors. The bull case rests on Southeast Asian market expansion and a revised revenue estimate of $10 million for 2026, while the bear case points to an 18% revenue decline year-on-year, a $1.4 million top line, and a market cap that has dropped to the low single-digit millions — well below estimated cash reserves, which itself raises governance and going-concern questions rather than straightforward value.
Past earnings prints have not been kind. Over the four most recent reports, the stock fell on three of four first-day reactions, with a five-day loss of nearly 27% following one November 2025 event and a 15% five-day decline after another. The one exception — a 2.8% first-day gain in April 2026 — was followed by a 4.5% five-day slide. The pattern is one of sustained post-earnings weakness, not recovery.
Thursday's print will test whether the company can show any revenue stabilisation — and whether the weight of short interest built at far higher price levels eventually forces covering, or simply reflects a market concluding this stock has further to fall.
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