Federal Realty Investment Trust heads into its May 21 earnings release with the most aggressive bullish options tilt seen in months — a sharp contrast to the subdued short interest picture across the rest of the positioning data.
The standout is options. The put/call ratio collapsed to 0.35 on Monday, nearly four standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 0.92. That is the most call-skewed reading in the past year, against a 52-week low of 0.17 and a high of 1.64. Something drove a heavy call-side bet into the print — whether outright bullish positioning or hedging of existing short positions, the move is the sharpest one-session swing in recent data. The stock itself is down 2.2% on the week to $113.16, even after recovering modestly from a softer month, making the options divergence more striking.
Short interest tells a quieter story. At 3.0% of the free float — roughly 2.6 million shares — bears hold a modest position with no signs of a squeeze building. Borrow costs are negligible at 0.48% annualised, and availability is exceptionally loose, with far more shares available to lend than are currently borrowed. Short interest has ticked up about 10% over the past month, but from a low base, and the ORTEX short score of 34.9 places FRT squarely in the middle of the universe. Positioning here is not aggressive in either direction.
Analyst opinion has moved firmly upward in the run-up. JP Morgan raised its target to $124 this week while keeping an Overweight rating, and UBS lifted to $118 — both within days of the print. The consensus mean target is $120.62, about 7% above the current price. That cluster of upward revisions follows a run of strong fundamental signals: FRT ranks in the 95th percentile on EPS surprise and the 94th on 30-day EPS momentum, suggesting the Street has been consistently underestimating the income trajectory. The debate centres less on near-term numbers and more on valuation: the P/E has compressed roughly 3.5 points over 30 days to 34x, and the EV/EBITDA of 17.2x has edged lower too — a modest re-rating that bears argue still leaves the stock stretched relative to retail REIT peers, given the structural pressure of e-commerce on tenant mix. Bulls counter with the 3%-4% comparable property operating income growth guide and an FFO trajectory that supports the premium.
The May 21 print will test whether FRT's mixed-use, prime-market positioning can sustain that premium multiple — and whether the sharp call-side bet placed on the eve of results reflects insight or noise.
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