Bitcoin Depot Inc. heads into its May 21 earnings print in the middle of an abrupt unwind — short sellers have retreated and borrow costs have collapsed, yet the stock is still down 42% on the week.
The borrow picture is the most striking feature of the setup. Cost to borrow peaked near 174% APR in mid-April and is now back to 46% — still elevated by any normal standard, but less than a third of the extreme reached just five weeks ago. Availability has loosened dramatically too, recovering from a near-total squeeze (under 4% in late April) to roughly 55% of outstanding short interest, meaning the acute borrow stress of April has materially unwound. That easing has been accompanied by a sharp drop in short positions: estimated shares short fell more than 57% over the past week, and are down 54% from a month ago, leaving short interest at just 0.8% of the free float — too thin to be the main story on its own.
The bulls and bears are fighting a different battle entirely. The bull case rests on BTM's kiosk footprint approaching 9,000 machines, revenue that grew 6% year-on-year in the most recent quarter at $172 million, and a median transaction size up 30% year-on-year — a sign that users are spending more per visit even if growth is modest. The ORTEX short score, while still elevated at 70, has pulled back meaningfully from above 82 earlier this month, a sign that composite bearish pressure is no longer at its recent peak. On valuation, the EV/EBITDA multiple has compressed by roughly 1.2 turns over the past 30 days, now running near 2.6x — low on its face, though the margin trajectory is the real concern: adjusted gross margins slipped to 19% in Q2 2025 from 20.2% the prior quarter, and adjusted EBITDA margins fell from 12.4% to 10.8%. Bears point to those pressures, along with losses attributable to legacy unit holders, as evidence that the kiosk model faces structural headwinds as crypto adoption migrates toward mainstream brokerages and mobile apps. Analyst coverage is thin — one buy and two holds — with HC Wainwright and B. Riley both raising targets after the March print (to $4.00 and $4.20 respectively), yet the stock's current level of $2.93 still sits well below those revised targets.
Insider activity offers limited comfort. The founder and President/CEO Brandon Mintz sold nearly $1.5 million of stock in October 2025 and continued selling at lower prices through November. The CFO and CEO both sold small amounts in April 2026 at $2.18. No purchases appear in the record. The signal is consistent: insiders have been sellers at every price level above the current one.
History adds a sobering backdrop. The last two earnings events, in March 2026, each saw the stock fall 7-13% on the day and 25-30% over the following five sessions. Options positioning offers one divergent read: the put/call ratio is running below its 20-day average, suggesting the options market is not currently positioned for downside protection — a notable contrast given the stock's recent price collapse. Thursday's print will test whether the kiosk network's transaction growth is enough to offset margin compression, and whether the retreat of short sellers reflects genuine fundamental improvement or simply position-taking ahead of a notoriously volatile event.
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