LanzaTech Global arrives at its May 20 earnings print having shed 74% of its value in a single month — a collapse so severe that the stock's entire near-term story is now defined by the damage already done rather than any short-side positioning.
The price action is the lead. Shares closed at $9.73 on May 15, after falling 43% in a single session on May 14 and 60% over the trailing week. That May 14 move matches the earnings history data precisely: the most recent prior event triggered a 47% single-day decline. The print before that — in late March — produced an 12% drop on day one before a violent 66% recovery over the following five sessions. The pattern is clear: LanzaTech's results have consistently produced outsized, often whipsaw moves, making this one of the more volatile small-cap setups heading into any earnings release.
Short interest is rising fast, but the absolute level keeps it from being the primary story. Short interest as a percentage of free float has climbed to 3.6%, up 23% over the past week and more than 150% over the past month. That pace of accumulation signals fresh conviction from short sellers in the wake of the crash — but at 3.6% of float, the position is not crowded enough to generate meaningful squeeze pressure on its own. Borrow costs are elevated at roughly 16% annualised, consistent over recent weeks, and availability has tightened noticeably to around 85% — down from above 160% a month ago — as demand for borrows picked up alongside the growing short base. The ORTEX short score of 55.8 sits in the bottom quartile of the universe by short-score percentile rank, reflecting a building but not extreme short setup.
The fundamental picture is deeply stressed. A Z-score of -13.93 and an F-Score of just 2 flag acute financial strain. Return on assets is deeply negative at roughly -39%, and the Quality pillar in the ORTEX stock score framework ranks near the bottom. What bulls can point to is the Growth score of 61 — the one pillar showing any structural support — and the concentrated backing of Vinod Khosla, whose vehicle holds roughly 35% of shares outstanding. The analyst consensus mean target of $15 is stale (last updated end of March, with the most recent individual change from Roth Capital in November 2025), and given the stock has since crashed from levels closer to that target, the figures carry limited forward relevance. No recent bellwether analyst moves are on record.
The May 20 print therefore tests a single question: whether LanzaTech can offer any operational evidence that its revenue trajectory and cash burn profile justify any meaningful re-rating from a stock that has now lost three-quarters of its value in a month.
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