Options sentiment on AIG has shifted sharply. The put/call ratio jumped to 1.47 on May 18 — the highest reading in four weeks and a z-score of 4.2 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.87. The stock had just gained 3% on the day.
The PCR move is the standout here. For most of the past month, AIG's ratio sat in a tight band around 0.87. It broke decisively higher in a single session. A z-score above 4.0 is rare. It signals a sudden, concentrated shift toward protective puts relative to calls — at exactly the moment the stock was ticking higher.
The 52-week PCR range runs from 0.36 to 1.77. Monday's 1.47 print sits in the upper quartile of that range, though it has not yet reached the annual peak.
The options defensiveness contrasts with what short sellers are doing. SI fell 12.5% in the past week to 1.17% of free float. Over the past month, short interest has dropped nearly 30%. At this level, SI is low and falling — not a primary driver of price action.
The borrow market reflects the same picture. Availability is extremely loose at effectively uncapped levels, meaning shares are abundant for anyone wanting to initiate a short position. Cost to borrow sits at 0.35% — low by any measure, down roughly 28% over the past month despite a brief midweek spike to 0.48% and an intraday drop to 0.065%.
Five firms raised price targets on AIG in the past two weeks, following Q1 earnings. Keefe Bruyette & Woods lifted its target to $98, maintaining Outperform. UBS moved to $94 (Buy). Citigroup went to $88. Mizuho raised to $86. The consensus target sits at $88.05 — a 12.4% premium to Monday's close of $78.36.
Wells Fargo was the lone dissenter, trimming to $85 from $86 (Equal-Weight). JP Morgan cut its target sharply to $86 from $97 in April, though that predated the earnings report.
One notable institutional move: Aristotle Capital Management added 4.9 million shares as of March 31, a significant build for a firm holding roughly 2% of the company.
The divergence between falling short interest and a sudden PCR spike is the key tension. Shorts are retreating. Yet options traders are buying protection at the top of a near-term rally. Next earnings are scheduled for July 31.
Data summary
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