Anheuser-Busch InBev is sending mixed signals ahead of its May 5 earnings call. The lending market just snapped to maximum tightness. Options traders, meanwhile, are the most bullish they've been in two years.
Availability in BUD's lending market collapsed to zero as of April 28. Every share available to borrow is now lent out — the tightest level recorded in the past 52 weeks.
One week ago, availability was relatively relaxed. The compression was abrupt. Short shares outstanding jumped 10.7% in a single day, reaching 5.84 million. That's a 14.9% rise over the week.
The speed of the move is notable. Borrowing demand accelerated sharply in the 48 hours before earnings.
Cost to borrow remains modest at 1.08% APR — well below levels that would signal a full squeeze. The lending market is tight, but not yet expensive.
While short sellers are borrowing aggressively, options positioning tells a different story.
BUD's put/call ratio hit 0.65 on April 28 — a two-year low. The 20-day mean sits at 0.75. That reading is 2.3 standard deviations below the norm. Calls are outpacing puts by 35%.
The shift in options sentiment began in mid-April. The PCR sat above 0.80 on April 17. It has fallen steadily since. The divergence between the options market and the lending market is now stark.
The May 5 print arrives with the stock up 10% over the past month. Analysts are broadly constructive. Evercore ISI raised its target to $100 in February. Wells Fargo holds an Overweight rating with an $88 target. The mean analyst target is $87.89 — 18% above the current price of $74.42.
GQG Partners added 7.9 million shares in January, the largest institutional position change in the recent holder data. BlackRock added 4.4 million shares as of March 31. Big money has been building.
BUD's last two earnings prints both produced positive one-day moves — up 4.1% in February and up 3.0% before that.
Insider activity is quiet. A single director sold $160K in February. No significant signal there.
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