V.F. Corporation heads into its fiscal Q4 earnings today with short sellers firmly on the offensive and the stock down sharply from where it traded just a month ago.
Short interest is the clearest signal in the setup. At 7.4% of the free float, it has climbed roughly two full percentage points since early April and is at its highest level of the past six weeks. That build has been steady and deliberate — shorts added throughout late April and into May, not in a single reactive burst. The stock itself has lost 20% over the past month to close at $16.74, giving those new shorts meaningful mark-to-market gains heading into the print. That combination — rising positions and falling price — is a bearish configuration going into the release.
The lending market, however, offers bears no extra leverage. Borrow availability is exceptionally loose at roughly 1,920% — meaning far more shares remain available to lend than are currently borrowed. Cost to borrow is just 0.39%, barely above zero. Bears can hold or add without facing any squeeze pressure.
The options market tells a similar cautious story. The put/call ratio is running at 1.40, in line with its 20-day average of 1.39 and well below the 52-week high of 1.53. The z-score of 0.15 shows no unusual spike into the print — options positioning is structurally defensive, as it has been for months, but there has been no fresh surge into puts ahead of today. Peers offer little comfort on price: fell 5% on the week and dropped 4%, suggesting broad sector pressure rather than company-specific panic.
The analyst debate has recently tilted more constructive, creating a genuine contrast with the bearish positioning data. BTIG upgraded to Buy on May 6 with a $23 target. Seaport Global moved to Buy in mid-April, citing $24. Wells Fargo raised its target from $15 to $20. That cluster of upgrades pushed the consensus rating to a buy-leaning stance, with a mean target of $21 — about 25% above the current price. J.P. Morgan sits on the other side, at Underweight with an $18 target after downgrading in February. Bulls point to the Vans and North Face brand rebuilds, digital growth, and cost discipline. Bears anchor on high leverage, a fragile North American wholesale channel, and a turnaround timeline that has been pushed out before. Factor scores add a wrinkle worth noting: EPS momentum ranks in the 90th percentile over 90 days, and the analyst recommendation differential scores in the 99th percentile — both suggesting the Street is leaning toward improvement even as the stock falls.
The print is therefore less a question of whether the turnaround is happening and more about whether the pace justifies the $21 consensus target — or validates the growing short book that has accumulated as the stock erased a fifth of its value in a month.
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