SOAR (Volato Group) approaches its May 22 earnings release as a company in transformation — the merger with M2i Global, completed convertible note elimination, and a maxed-out ATM equity offering have reshaped the balance sheet, even as the stock has lost 35% over the past month to close at $0.147.
Short sellers took large positions through late April, but have been cutting exposure quickly. Short Interest as a percentage of free float reached roughly 15.2% as of May 18 — still elevated, but the direction has reversed sharply: SI fell 19% over the past week and is down 17% in a single session on May 18. That retreat has eased the lending market meaningfully. Availability now stands at 233%, up 67% week-on-week — moving from tight to comfortably supplied — while cost to borrow has drifted down from a peak near 17% in mid-April to 12.6%, the lowest in the past six weeks. The ORTEX short score of 58 reflects residual bearish positioning without anything approaching an extreme squeeze setup.
The debate heading into the print centres on whether the corporate pivot changes the fundamental story. On the news front, the most significant development is the May 19 announcement confirming full drawdown of the ATM equity offering and elimination of all convertible notes — a signal that management has cleared near-term balance sheet risk at the cost of dilution. The M2i Global merger approval in late April, the Tenant Use Agreement at Hawthorne Army Depot, and a battery recycling collaboration with Regenerate Technology Global all point to a company repositioning away from private aviation into critical minerals and battery infrastructure. That pivot explains the divergence between SOAR and aviation peers: fell 4.7% over the week and dropped 11.2%, but SOAR's weakness has an additional equity-dilution overlay absent from those names.
Insider activity in late March adds a modestly constructive data point. The CEO, CFO, and COO each bought shares on March 27 at $0.26 — well above today's price — with two directors also buying small amounts on the same day. At under $3,000 per trade the dollar values are negligible, but the coordinated cluster across senior management and the board signals alignment ahead of a major corporate transformation. Past earnings have been volatile in both directions: the March 27 event saw a 25.5% single-day decline, while a May 2026 announcement produced a 6.6% gain.
Thursday's print is less about aviation revenue trends and more about whether the company can articulate a credible capital plan for its new critical-minerals identity — and whether the ATM dilution leaves enough equity value to support the current market cap.
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