Venture Global has climbed 29% in a month. Its CFO and General Counsel are still selling. That disconnect is the most telling signal in the data right now.
Since mid-May, insider selling has accelerated rather than paused. General Counsel Keith Larson sold 555,555 shares on May 14 at $13.07 — then another 555,555 shares on May 15 at $14.04. That's over $15 million in two days. Senior VP Fory Musser sold 2 million shares on May 14 alone for $26.2 million. CFO Jonathan Thayer added further sales on May 18 and May 19, totalling roughly $3 million at prices up to $14.59.
Net insider disposals over the past 90 days now stand at approximately $219.7 million across 15.5 million shares. The direction has not changed since the earnings preview published May 12: senior management is a consistent net seller all the way up.
Short interest sits at 8.3% of free float — up roughly 24% from a month ago. That's a meaningful position. But the borrow market is sending the opposite signal: the cost to borrow has collapsed 66% in one week to just 0.15%. Availability has expanded to 924% of short interest, meaning roughly nine shares are available to borrow for every one already shorted. That is a loose lending environment. New shorts are not fighting for supply. The bears are building positions cheaply and easily.
The put/call ratio hit 0.69 on May 19 — 2.2 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.62. The absolute level is not extreme, but the pace of move is. As the stock has rallied, options market participants have been adding puts at an accelerating rate. The 52-week PCR high is 2.28, so there is room to run if sentiment shifts further.
Following the May 12 earnings beat, Citi upgraded to Buy with a $17 target. Morgan Stanley raised its target to $22. Scotiabank moved to $15. The mean analyst target is now $15.34 — with VG trading at $14.78, the stock has already closed most of the gap to consensus. The bull case relies on long-term LNG demand growth; the bear case centers on depressed spot LNG prices and execution risk on commissioning. A further earnings event is scheduled for May 27.
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