SoundHound AI reports Thursday with its borrow market at an absolute extreme — every share in the lending pool is currently lent out, with zero availability — while short interest has been grinding higher for the past month and EPS estimate momentum is near the top of the universe.
The positioning story is stark. Short interest has climbed to 38.7% of the free float, up from roughly 35.4% at the start of April and edging off a recent peak of 39.4% reached on May 12. The borrow market has been fully locked out since late April, with availability at 0% and cost to borrow running at 22.7% — well off its early-May peak of around 61% but still elevated. That cost-to-borrow spike, which coincided with the sharp lift in short interest following the Q1 print on May 7, has since eased as shorts have marginally covered. The net read is a heavily congested short base with no room to add: new entrants cannot borrow shares, and those already short are paying a meaningful carry. The ORTEX short score sits at 85.3, near where it has been all week — a composite that reflects the combination of extreme positioning, tight availability, and elevated borrow cost.
Options traders are notably relaxed given the backdrop. The put/call ratio runs at 0.46, barely above its 20-day average of 0.45 and a long way from the 0.67 52-week high. The z-score is just 0.5, meaning options market participants are not rushing to hedge. That is a sharp divergence from the short book — a stock with almost 40% of its float short, no available borrow, and yet call-heavy options flow. That tension is the setup heading into Thursday's print.
Analysts are split. Bulls, led by DA Davidson and HC Wainwright, hold Buy ratings with targets in the $14–$20 range, citing a debt-free balance sheet, diversified voice AI revenue streams, and potential margin expansion from recent acquisitions. Piper Sandler sits on the other side with a Neutral rating and a $9 target — broadly in line with the current $8.45 price — pointing to valuation near 30x forward revenue and execution risk in a rapidly commoditising Voice AI market. The mean target of $14.25 implies roughly 69% upside to spot, though the spread between the bear-case target and the bull case is almost 2x, which captures how wide the range of outcomes is. EPS estimate momentum is in the 97th-to-100th percentile, suggesting analysts have been lifting forward numbers aggressively — a factor that historically narrows the gap between bull and bear.
The May 7 Q1 report is the only clean earnings reaction in the history available, and the stock fell 5.2% on the day and 9.1% over the following five days. That sets a recent base case for how the market has responded to an earnings event even when headline estimates are being revised higher. The gap between improving estimates and a poor post-print reaction underlines the valuation overhang bears keep pointing to.
Among correlated peers, the past week has been mixed. ARQQ dropped 15.5% and QBTS fell 18.6%, while ZETA gained 12.6% — a bifurcated week that leaves SOUN's 4.8% gain looking relatively constructive. What to watch Thursday is whether the print is good enough to force covers in a zero-availability borrow market, or whether improved estimates have already been priced in.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open SOUN on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
