FTNT added another 12% this week, reaching $127.64 — a stock that has now risen 56% in a single month and continues to outpace every price target on Wall Street.
The gap between price and analyst conviction has widened further since last week's note. The consensus mean target remains anchored at $106.47, roughly 17% below where the stock is trading today. That divergence is now the defining feature of the setup. The most constructive firm on the Street, TD Cowen, has a Buy and a $125 target — which FTNT has already blown through. JPMorgan maintains Underweight at $75, Wells Fargo at $70. No firm has moved its target since May 8. The Street has effectively paused while the stock kept running. Factor scores offer some context: EPS momentum ranks in the 80th percentile over 30 days, earnings surprise in the 78th, and the analyst recommendation divergence score hits the 94th percentile — a signal that the spread between bull and bear conviction has rarely been wider. The P/E multiple has expanded by more than 12 points over the past month to 39x, with price-to-book up a comparable 12 points to 28x.
Options positioning has flipped sharply, and it tells the most interesting story of the week. The put/call ratio has collapsed to 1.12 — nearly 2.7 standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 1.34 and the lowest reading of the past year. A month ago the PCR was touching its 52-week high at 1.48, reflecting heavy defensive hedging into the Q1 print. That protection has now been unwound almost entirely, replaced by noticeably more bullish options flow. Investors who were bracing for a miss are now positioned for continuation. The shift is striking given how far the stock has already moved.
Founders continue to sell into the rally, though the scale remains modest relative to holdings. CEO Ken Xie and CTO Michael Xie both sold shares on May 4, with Xie's combined transactions totalling just over $440,000 across multiple tranches at prices in the high-$80s — well below current levels. CFO Christiane Ohlgart has also been selling through mid-May, with three separate transactions between May 7 and May 14 at prices ranging from $110 to $120. The net insider figure over 90 days is actually a small positive at roughly $2.1m, reflecting option-related mechanics rather than any genuine accumulation signal. Combined, Ken and Michael Xie still hold around 15.5% of the company. Their steady but unhurried selling does not suggest urgency.
The borrow market has nothing to add to the tension. Availability is effectively unlimited — the lending pool dwarfs short demand by orders of magnitude. Cost to borrow eased to 0.30% this week, its lowest level in the recent window. Short interest is a modest 2.6% of float and fell slightly over the week. The short score of 34 sits in the lower half of the universe. None of these metrics point to squeeze dynamics or meaningful bearish conviction from active short sellers. Peers PANW and CRWD both gained 11-13% on the week, confirming this is partly a sector move, though FTNT's 12% gain keeps it at the top of the group.
The next scheduled catalyst is a Q2 earnings event on June 12. After back-to-back prints that drove single-day moves of 7% and 20% respectively — and five-day moves of 14% and 31% — the earnings bar has shifted considerably. The question heading into June is no longer whether Fortinet can execute, but whether analysts catch up before the print or wait until after it.
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