Short sellers have quietly but steadily rebuilt their position in ARES over the past month — and the timing, right ahead of a June 8 earnings call, sets up an interesting tension between a growing bearish positioning and a Street that remains broadly constructive on the alternative asset manager.
Short interest has climbed 17% over the past month to reach 7.3% of the free float, its highest level in the recent history of the data. The acceleration has been particularly sharp in the last two weeks, with roughly 1.4 million shares added since May 4. That pace of build — gradual but consistent, not a single-day spike — suggests deliberate repositioning rather than a reactive hedge. Despite the growth in short positions, borrowing costs remain low at 0.57% annually. Availability is still generous at 454%, meaning there is no technical squeeze pressure in the lending pool. The shorts are building, but conditions remain comfortable for them to do so.
Options positioning offers a mild corroborating signal. The put/call ratio has edged to 1.19, just above its 20-day average of 1.15 and roughly one standard deviation above the mean — not an extreme reading, but directionally cautious. For context, in early April, when macro volatility was at its peak, the PCR ran above 1.5. The current level looks more like residual defensiveness than outright fear. Taken together, the lending and options picture describes a market that is leaning cautious, not panicking.
The Street, however, has not abandoned ARES. Analyst consensus remains firmly positive, with a mean price target of $145 implying roughly 20% upside to the current price of $121. The most recent move came Monday, when TD Cowen's Bill Katz trimmed his target from $148 to $144 while maintaining his Buy rating — a slight adjustment, not a change of view. Barclays actually raised its target from $127 to $140 after Q1 results on May 4, making it one of the few houses moving higher on the name. The broad pattern over the past six weeks has been one of modest target reductions reflecting macro recalibrations, not downgrades — JPMorgan cut from $188 to $144 in late April but kept its Overweight, as did Goldman Sachs, which moved from $165 to $131 in early April but maintained its Buy. The forward EPS growth score ranks in the 90th percentile, the dividend score at the 88th — suggesting the underlying fundamental quality story remains intact even as multiple compression weighs on the valuation. EV/EBITDA has contracted about 5 turns over the past 30 days to 17.6x, reflecting the broader de-rating of alternative asset managers this year.
The peer group confirms this is a sector story as much as a stock story. KKR fell 6.6% on the week, BX dropped 6.9%, TPG shed 8.5%, and CG lost 9%. ARES, down 2.1% on the week, has held up better than most of its direct comparables. That relative resilience is worth noting — it either reflects better fundamental insulation or simply a stock that has already absorbed more of the year-to-date drawdown.
Insider activity from Q1 provides one additional data point. In late January, CEO Michael Arougheti sold approximately $22.8 million of stock at around $149, a level meaningfully above where ARES trades today. That sale predates the tariff-driven market dislocation and likely reflects scheduled distribution rather than a directional view, but the contrast with current price levels adds colour to what has been a rough few months for the stock. On the other side, independent director Ashish Bhutani bought $1.3 million in early February — a more modest but notable vote of confidence near current-ish levels.
The June 8 earnings call is the next hard event. ARES posted a 3.3% one-day gain after its most recent release and a 7.5% five-day drift higher — the print was well received. The question heading in is whether AUM growth commentary and credit performance can offset investor concerns about valuation compression in the alternatives space more broadly, given the weight of accumulated short interest and the pace at which it has been added.
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