AMCR enters the back half of May with a troubling combination: the stock is down 6.5% on the week and 12.5% over the past month, while short sellers are quietly rebuilding after a brief retreat following the May earnings print.
Short interest has edged back up to 7% of the free float, rising roughly 4% in the latest session after a mid-month dip that followed the Q3 earnings beat. The temporary covering in the week of May 11 — when SI dropped from around 8% to 6.8% — appears to have been just that: temporary. The rebound in shorts to 7% puts the position back in territory that has been building since late March, when it stood closer to 6%. Borrow costs remain negligible at 0.45% APR, down 22% on the week, which makes it cheap and frictionless to maintain a short position. Availability is still comfortable at roughly 149% — meaning there are still ample shares in the lending pool relative to what is currently borrowed — though it has tightened sharply from 235% a week ago, worth monitoring if the trend continues.
The Street is broadly constructive but systematically cutting targets. JP Morgan kept its Overweight rating but trimmed its price target from $50 to $44 after the earnings release, and Citigroup made a similar move, pulling its Buy target from $54 to $47. This morning Wells Fargo lowered its Equal-Weight target to $41 from $43 — the most cautious framing among recent movers. Only Truist bucked the trend, nudging its Buy target up a dollar to $51. The consensus sits at a mean target of $48.21, which implies roughly 31% upside to the current $36.69 close. At face value that is an attractive gap, but the direction of travel on targets is clear: the Street sees upside, just less of it than it did a month ago. The P/E has compressed over 30 days to around 9x, while EV/EBITDA is 8.4x. The dividend score ranks in the 80th percentile, a real support point for income-oriented holders.
The institutional picture offers some nuance. Invesco added a substantial 14.4 million shares in the period ending April 30, and UBS Asset Management added roughly 10.6 million, both making meaningful additions. M&G and Vanguard also added over 2 million shares apiece through Q1. That level of institutional accumulation contrasts with the short rebuild — passive and active managers are adding while tactical shorts press the position. The insider data is stale (last trade February 27, with modest award-related selling at $48.43), so it carries little weight at current price levels.
The most recent earnings reaction is worth noting as context. The Q3 print on May 6 pushed AMCR up 6.1% the next day and 3.9% over the following five sessions. That post-earnings strength makes the subsequent 12.5% monthly decline more striking — short sellers moved back in as the relief rally faded. The prior earnings event in late April produced a 4.4% one-day decline, so results-day moves have been volatile in both directions.
What to watch: availability is tightening fast — a drop below 100% from the current 149% would mark a genuine shift in lending market dynamics, especially with cost to borrow already drifting lower. Whether the institutional buyers absorbing shares can offset continued short accumulation at this price level is the tension worth tracking into any next macro or sector catalyst.
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