RBLX enters its May 28 earnings call having already cost most of the Street half their price targets — the question now is whether the next print changes anything.
The post-earnings selloff at the end of April set the tone. The stock dropped nearly 20% on May 1 and another 20% over the following week, landing at $44.45. It has since recovered 7% on the week, but that partial bounce still leaves RBLX down roughly 26% for the month. The damage was done: a platform with genuine scale — hundreds of millions of users, a maturing creator economy — was priced like a growth story, and the April 30 results reminded investors that growth has stalled.
The positioning picture is surprisingly contained given that backdrop. Short interest has drifted higher since late April, climbing from around 2.9% of free float in mid-April to 3.26% now, a roughly 11% rise on the month. That is a steady rebuild, not a panic pile-in. Borrow remains effectively free at 0.39% cost, and availability is extremely loose at more than 3,700% — meaning shares to borrow vastly outnumber existing short positions, with no squeeze mechanics anywhere in sight. The ORTEX short score of 33 sits near the middle of its recent range and well below levels associated with crowded shorts. Options traders are equally relaxed: the put/call ratio of 0.65 is statistically flat against its 20-day average, with a z-score near zero. There is no hedging urgency in the options market, nor any aggressive directional bet. Combined, the message from positioning is that this is a fundamentally-driven selloff, not a flow-driven one.
The Street's response to April 30 tells the same story, though the tone is notably grimmer than it was before. Piper Sandler cut the rating to Neutral and slashed its target from $100 to $50. Goldman Sachs kept its Buy but halved its target from $125 to $65. Citigroup and Macquarie did similar: maintained constructive ratings while cutting targets by 30-43%. HSBC downgraded to Hold. After the dust settled, the mean price target across coverage is now $64.89 — implying roughly 46% upside from the current price, but that figure sits on a stock trading at $44.45 against targets that were $90-$140 just weeks ago. The bull case rests on international expansion, advertising, and subscription layering. The bear case is more immediate: age-verification mandates are compressing the addressable user base, and the compliance overhang has no clear resolution timeline. EPS momentum scores of 14 and 19 on the 30- and 90-day windows reflect the depth of the estimate cuts.
The institutional holder base adds one note of interest. T. Rowe Price added more than 15 million shares as of the end of March, becoming one of the more notable recent accumulators. Capital Research and FMR also added in the April reporting period. Founder David Baszucki's stake has been flat, though CEO Greg Baszucki sold roughly $750,000 in shares on May 5 — modest relative to his position and consistent with a pre-arranged plan rather than a conviction move. Net insider selling of roughly $6.2 million over 90 days is worth noting but is not a standout signal.
The April 30 print produced the worst single-day reaction in the available history: down 19.8% on the day and 20.4% over five days. The May 28 call arrives with targets already reset, the stock back near post-earnings lows, and the core debate unchanged — whether age-verification pressure and slowing daily active user growth are temporary frictions or structural constraints on the platform's monetisation ceiling. That is the binary the next print will either sharpen or resolve.
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