YOU enters the week before its June 10 earnings call riding a 4.3% gain over the past five days and a 71% move year-to-date — yet the options market just flashed its most aggressive bullish signal of the past year.
The standout data point this week is options positioning. The put/call ratio collapsed to 0.23 on Tuesday — more than three standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.79, the most call-heavy reading in at least 12 months. For context, as recently as mid-April the PCR sat above 1.15, meaning protection demand dominated. That reversal is sharp and concentrated: it arrived in a single session on May 19, after the ratio spent the prior two weeks close to 0.92. Whatever drove the shift — fresh call buying, put liquidation, or both — the options market is now pricing in a decidedly bullish lean ahead of the June print.
The short-side story is more ambiguous. At just over 10% of the free float, short interest is genuinely elevated — but the direction has softened. Shorts peaked near 10.8 million shares in early April, have drifted down about 7% since, and this week only edged back up by 1%. Cost to borrow is a non-issue at 0.43%, and availability is exceptionally loose at over 4,400% of short interest. That means roughly 83 million shares remain available to lend against fewer than 10 million already borrowed — the borrow market offers no friction to either side. An ORTEX short score of 51 sits right at the midpoint of its range, consistent with a contested name rather than a squeeze candidate or a crowded short.
The Street moved in conflicting directions after the May 6 earnings release. Needham raised its target to $70 and kept its Buy, while DA Davidson downgraded from Buy to Neutral and trimmed the target to $60 — precisely where the stock is now trading. Wells Fargo maintained its Underweight but lifted its target from $33 to $40, still well below consensus. The mean analyst target of $62 implies just 3% upside from the current $60.14, making the return-potential picture thin. The bull case centres on 31.5% cumulative enrollment growth to 38 million members and a 58.1% jump in adjusted EBITDA to $79.9 million — genuine operational momentum. The bear case is harder to dismiss: gross dollar retention has fallen for five consecutive quarters to 86.4%, and annual CLEAR+ usage dropped 2.7% year-on-year. That combination — growing members, declining engagement per member — is the tension the Street is wrestling with.
Insider activity over the past 90 days tilts toward selling. Founder and CEO Caryn Seidman-Becker sold over 225,000 shares at roughly $48–$49 in early March, raising around $11 million. President Michael Barkin sold 35,700 shares on April 1 at $49, netting $1.75 million. A Chief Level Officer sold a smaller tranche of 4,412 shares at $59 in mid-May. The 90-day net share figure is technically positive at roughly 706,000 shares, but that reflects award grants offset by open-market sales — the cash transactions are consistently one-directional. The stock has since climbed well above the March and April sale prices, which moderates the significance somewhat.
BlackRock and Vanguard together hold over 26% of shares, with both adding modestly in their most recent filings. Goldman Sachs built a new position of 638,000 shares as of March 31. Renaissance Technologies trimmed by 290,000 shares in the same period. The institutional picture is broadly stable, with the passive bid anchoring the register and Goldman's accumulation providing one of the cleaner active signals in recent quarters.
The RSI of 62.7 leaves room before overbought territory, and the EV/EBITDA multiple of 14.1x has pulled back about 0.9x over the past 30 days as the stock ran ahead of earnings estimates. With earnings due June 10, the question that will define the next trade is whether CLEAR+ member retention is stabilising or whether the five-quarter deterioration in gross dollar retention is widening.
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