Bitdeer Technologies Group heads into the back half of May with its short sellers at their most aggressive in weeks, even as analysts just hiked targets and the rest of the crypto mining sector surged.
The bear camp has been quietly rebuilding since early May. Short interest climbed to 40.2% of free float on May 19, up from around 37.2% on May 8 — a near-three-point rise in eight sessions. That level is back to where positioning sat in late April, before a brief dip in mid-month, and the month-on-month build is now 16%. The ORTEX short score is running at 73, near the top of its recent range, and the stock ranks in just the 3rd percentile for short score — meaning almost every comparable name carries less bear positioning. Days to cover runs at 8.6 on the FINRA fortnightly figure, a number that would require sustained buying pressure to unwind quickly.
Borrow cost tells a subtler story. The cost to borrow has climbed 30% over the week to 1.29% APR — notable in direction, though still cheap in absolute terms. More telling is the availability picture: borrow availability has actually loosened materially this week, moving from around 95% to 125%. That is still in the tight-to-normal band, but the direction of travel means fresh shorts are finding more shares to borrow, not fewer. There is no lending squeeze in sight at current levels. Options positioning leans slightly toward caution — the put/call ratio is 0.57, modestly above its 20-day average of 0.55, and well below the 52-week high of 0.94 — so the derivatives market is not yet ringing alarm bells.
The Street turned constructively louder this week. Three firms raised targets on May 15, all after Q1 results: Rosenblatt moved to $25 (from $18), B. Riley lifted to $23, and Needham nudged to $19. Cantor Fitzgerald also raised its target to $15, though it retained a Neutral rating and halved the same target back in April when it downgraded from Overweight. Bulls point to Bitdeer's diversified mining and HPC infrastructure buildout, with the Tydal site in Norway seen as a potential high-margin anchor. Bears counter that the company has negative gross margin, relies on subsidiaries for operations, and needs ongoing capital raises to fund growth. The mean analyst target sits at $21.02 against a current price of $12.83 — roughly 64% implied upside — but the spread between the bulls at $25 and the sole Neutral at $15 is wide, reflecting genuine disagreement on execution. EPS momentum ranks in the 99th percentile over both 30 and 90 days, suggesting analyst estimate revisions have turned sharply positive. Quality scores, however, remain weak, consistent with a company still investing heavily ahead of profitability.
Institutional ownership adds an interesting structural dimension. Tether Holdings holds 15.8% of shares, co-founder Jihan Wu holds 19.5%, and together with a handful of other strategic holders, the free float available to trade is narrower than the headline share count implies. Against that backdrop, Sachem Head Capital Management entered a fresh 3.95% stake in Q1 — a notable activist-adjacent name joining the register. BlackRock and UBS both added shares in Q1. The concentrated ownership structure means any sustained short-covering rally could amplify quickly.
The most recent earnings print — May 14 — produced a modest 1% next-day gain. The prior print in February saw a 4.75% next-day decline. The next scheduled event is August 12. Peer performance this week was sharply divergent: CLSK gained 9% on the day and HIVE surged 18% over the week, while IREN fell 15.6% and BTBT dropped 11.7%. BTDR itself was flat on the week and down 2.4% on Tuesday. The widening gap between winners and laggards inside crypto mining suggests sector-level tailwinds are not lifting all boats — what to watch is whether BTDR's short rebuild continues to absorb the post-earnings analyst momentum, or whether fresh institutional buying at discounted levels starts to pressure the bear case.
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