Dorian LPG has already delivered the numbers — Q4 TCE revenue of $63,615 per available day, full-year net income of $193.7 million, and a dividend lift to $1 per share — and the market's verdict has been swift and decisive.
The stock has moved 12.8% in a single session and is now up 31.6% over the past month, closing at $47.72. Options traders positioned heavily for the upside: the put/call ratio dropped to just 0.09, well below its 20-day average of 0.13, placing it near the most bullish extreme seen over the past year. The borrow market offers no friction for bears either — availability remains exceptionally deep at 1,150% of short interest, with cost to borrow near 0.5%. There is nothing in the lending market to amplify the move in either direction.
Short sellers are under clear pressure, though the squeeze has already begun to unwind. SI fell 11.2% in a single day on May 19, pulling back from the week's rebuilt position of roughly 4.1% of the free float. That is consistent with the prior article's observation that shorts had been piling back in ahead of the print — and got caught. The peer group paints a stark contrast: ASC, FRO, , and all fell between 1% and 5% on the week, while edged up 4.8%. Dorian's 17.5% weekly gain is a category of its own.
The analyst community now looks structurally behind the move. The consensus mean target is $43.80 — well below the current $47.72 price. Jefferies initiated coverage in late April with a Buy and a $42 target, which the stock has already cleared. The bull case rests on U.S. VLGC export growth and the fleet's operational leverage; the bear case centres on spot rates compressing from $50,000 to near $30,000 per day and naphtha competition eating into charter demand. The factor snapshot reinforces the income angle: the dividend score ranks in the 85th percentile, and the analyst recommendation divergence — at the 95th percentile — signals that the Street has not yet fully converged on a post-results view.
The earnings call on May 22 is therefore less about whether the headline numbers were strong — they clearly were — and more about whether management's forward guidance on charter rates and fleet deployment can justify a price that has now outrun analyst targets entirely.
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