Options traders have now held elevated downside protection on MPLX for a fourth consecutive session — even as the unit price barely moves and short sellers stay absent from the trade.
The put/call ratio sits at 0.40, a level that has persisted since May 18. It is roughly 2.0 standard deviations above the 20-day mean of 0.345. The 52-week low for this ratio is 0.18 — today's reading is more than double that floor. Yet the price has drifted only fractionally, down 0.27% on the day and off less than 1% over the month. Options participants are buying protection that the price tape doesn't obviously justify.
Here is where the picture gets unusual. The cost to borrow has surged 116% over the past week to 0.41% annualised. That is a sharp move. But the underlying short interest tells the opposite story: SI stands at just 0.71% of free float, near multi-month lows, and availability is wide at around 410% — meaning roughly four shares are available to borrow for every one currently borrowed. The CTB spike is not being driven by a scramble for borrows. Something else is repricing the borrow, even as actual short conviction remains minimal.
Morgan Stanley trimmed its target to $60 from $62 yesterday, maintaining Equal-Weight. That follows Wells Fargo's cut to $61 from $63 on May 7. Pulling the other way, Barclays raised to $59 from $58 on May 14, and Goldman Sachs sits at $63 with a Buy. The mean target is $60.71 — roughly 9.5% above the current price of $55.44. The Street is not alarmed, but it is not aligned either.
The next earnings date is July 28. The last print triggered a 1-day move of -2.6%.
What to watch: Whether the elevated put positioning resolves before earnings season or signals something more specific — sector positioning, hedging around the MPC relationship, or macro energy concerns — is the open question the data alone cannot answer.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
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