American International Group heads into its Q1 2026 earnings release — scheduled for Wednesday, April 30 — with the most striking feature not in the borrow market or options flow, but in the rapid unwinding of short positions over the past month.
Short interest has fallen sharply. From a peak above 9.1 million shares in early April, estimated short positions have declined by nearly a third to around 6.9 million shares, leaving SI at just 1.28% of the free float. That 18% drop over the past month is one of the more decisive short-covering moves across the P&C insurance sector in recent weeks. The retreat suggests the bears who piled in during early April — likely on macro and catastrophe-loss concerns following the tariff-driven market turbulence — have stepped back ahead of the print.
The borrow market reinforces that picture. Availability remains extremely loose — the lending pool is nowhere near stressed, with cost to borrow at just 0.25%, down nearly 40% over the past week and more than 20% over the past month. That is well below levels seen even in mid-March. Availability at this level means any short seller who wanted to build or maintain a position could do so cheaply and easily. The borrow market is offering no squeeze pressure whatsoever. Options positioning is actually tilted in a mildly bullish direction. The put/call ratio has dropped to 0.79, roughly two standard deviations below its 20-day average of 0.82 — the least defensive the options market has looked all year, and a notable contrast with the broader insurance sector heading into what could be a volatile earnings season.
The Street has been uniformly trimming targets without abandoning the stock. JP Morgan's Jimmy Bhullar cut his target from $97 to $86 on April 20, maintaining a Neutral rating — the most recent bellwether move, and the most aggressive target reduction in the recent batch. Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo, and Barclays all lowered targets slightly in early April while keeping hold-equivalent ratings. The consensus mean target now stands at $86.45, implying around 16% upside from the current price of $74.16. The bull case centres on improving P&C underwriting discipline, a 13% year-over-year jump in net investment income to $881 million, and strong Convex Gross Written Premium growth running at a 25% CAGR over three years. Bears point to persistent underwriting margin weakness at the Convex and EG units, a slower buyback pace, and a valuation discount to peers that has proved sticky. The PE multiple has drifted down to around 9.1x over the past week, while the price-to-book remains below 1x at 0.89.
Insider activity in March adds a note of caution worth flagging. CEO Peter Zaffino sold 134,150 shares on March 3 for just over $10.8 million, at prices around $80.49 — meaningfully above where the stock trades today at $74. Several other C-suite executives made smaller sales on the same date, including the CFO and chief information officer. While cluster selling of this type often reflects compensation-cycle mechanics, the timing puts those transactions at the top of the recent trading range, and the stock has since lost around 8% from those levels.
Among close peers, EG slipped just 0.8% on the week against AIG's 4.8% decline, and CNA actually gained 1.1%. That relative underperformance heading into the print puts more weight on what AIG's management communicates Wednesday about catastrophe losses — particularly from the January California wildfires — and whether the underwriting trajectory at Convex can justify the current discount to book.
See the live data behind this article on ORTEX.
Open AIG on ORTEX →ORTEX Market Intelligence content is generated by AI from a snapshot of ORTEX's proprietary data. Content is informational only and does not constitute investment advice.
