SQM reports Q1 results on May 27 with the options market showing more defensiveness than usual, even as short sellers have continued to retreat and the borrow market remains wide open.
Options positioning has drifted more cautious in the run-up to the print. The put/call ratio is running at 0.38 — about 1.4 standard deviations above its 20-day mean of 0.28. That is a notable shift from earlier in May, when the ratio sat as low as 0.21. The move is not extreme, but it points to growing demand for downside protection as the earnings date approaches.
Short interest tells a different story from the options market. Shares short have declined roughly 30% over the past two weeks, falling from around 1.57 million in early May to approximately 1.1 million. That is a clear retreat from bearish positioning. The borrow market remains wide open — availability is essentially unconstrained, with cost to borrow at just 0.53%, down sharply from a brief spike above 4% on May 8. Short sellers who want to re-enter face no friction whatsoever. The ORTEX short score of 26.9 reflects that — it ranks in the 87th percentile for lack of short pressure, meaning bears have largely stepped aside.
The central debate heading into the print is how much further lithium pricing can weigh on earnings. Bears point to the projected EBITDA decline toward $2 billion for 2026, down from $2.3 billion, and the risk that stagnant lithium prices could drain cash reserves and force external capital raises. Bulls counter with SQM's diversification — iodine, fertilizers, and solar salts all provide a cushion — and its strategic positioning in lithium refining joint ventures for the eventual demand recovery. The analyst community is split: BofA maintained an Underperform with a $53 target back in March, while Scotiabank and Deutsche Bank carry Outperform and Buy ratings respectively, with targets well above the current $80 level. The consensus price target of roughly $79 sits fractionally below where the stock is now trading, which itself reflects the lack of clear directional conviction on the Street.
The stock is down about 8% over the past month to $80.18, recovering just 1% on Friday after a weak week. Correlated peer ALB fell over 11% on the week, and Chinese lithium names on Shenzhen also lost 5–10%, suggesting the sector as a whole is facing headwinds beyond SQM specifically. Past earnings prints have not been kind: the last three results all produced negative first-day reactions, with one one-day drop of nearly 10% followed by further losses over the following week.
The May 27 print is therefore less about whether SQM's diversified model holds up and more about whether lithium volumes and realised prices show any sign of stabilisation — or deepen the case for a capital raise.
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