ADSK shorts retreat ahead of May earnings

Autodesk heads into its May 26 earnings report with shorts cutting positions sharply and options sentiment flipping notably less defensive — a setup that stands in contrast to the stock's rough month.

The most striking move this week is the retreat in short interest. Short positions shed roughly 19% in a single week, dropping from around 6.2 million shares to just under 5 million, pulling SI % FF down to 2.3% from a recent high near 3%. The drawdown began abruptly on April 23, when shorts covered around 1 million shares in two sessions. That kind of quick unwind ahead of a catalyst is worth noting — it suggests at least some tactical shorts have decided not to press into the May print. Borrow costs have edged higher (up 27% on the week to 0.51% annualised), but that remains firmly in cheap-to-borrow territory. Availability is still wide, meaning there is no real constraint on new short positioning if sentiment were to sour.

Options tell a similar story of easing pressure. The put/call ratio has dropped to 1.48 — well below its 20-day average of 1.56 and sitting more than two standard deviations below that mean. That is the most call-skewed reading relative to recent history in the past year. It follows a sustained period of elevated put demand through most of April, when the PCR ran above 1.60. Whether this reflects genuine bullish rotation or simply put-holders rolling out ahead of earnings is not clear from the data alone, but the directional shift is notable. The short score of 31.5 is down from 33.2 in mid-April, corroborating the broader pattern of reduced short-side conviction.

The Street still sees significant upside, though the analyst community has been recalibrating. The mean price target sits at $325 against a current price of $234.85, implying roughly 38% return potential — a gap that reflects both genuine long-term enthusiasm and some stale targets from the post-Q4 target-trimming cycle. The most actionable recent move came from Jefferies, which initiated coverage on April 15 at Buy with a $300 target. That followed Citi's downgrade on April 10, which cut from Buy to Neutral and slashed its target from $331 to $246 — the most bearish call in the recent cluster and one that reflects concern about nearer-term execution rather than the long-term franchise. The broader analyst cohort maintained positive ratings through the February earnings beat but trimmed numbers; the bull case centres on AEC segment strength, cost discipline, and transition model momentum, while bears point to softness in construction end-markets and a lack of multi-year growth targets. EPS estimate momentum over 90 days ranks in the 85th percentile, and the forward EPS growth trajectory ranks at the 97th percentile — both suggesting the fundamental backdrop remains well-supported even if the current price has given back 20.6% year-to-date.

Insider activity from late March adds a layer of context. CEO Andrew Anagnost sold approximately $10.5 million of stock on March 24, alongside CFO Janesh Moorjani's $2.2 million disposal. These were accompanied by RSU awards to both executives, a common pattern around vesting cycles, and the trade significance scores are low. The 90-day net value is a positive $19 million — skewed by the award grants rather than open-market purchases — so the insider picture is broadly neutral rather than a directional signal.

Peer performance this week also puts ADSK's 4.3% weekly decline in context. BSY fell 7.7%, and NOW dropped 9.6% — both more correlated peers faring considerably worse. INTU shed 1.1% and GWRE 1.7%. On that relative basis, Autodesk held up reasonably well in what was a soft week for application software broadly.

What to watch next: Autodesk's Q1 FY2027 call on May 26 is the next hard catalyst, and the recent pattern of post-earnings strength — the stock rose 9.4% the day after the February print and extended gains to 17.5% over the following week — makes the positioning ahead of that date worth tracking closely as it develops.