Rigetti Computing has extended its extraordinary run, gaining another 20% on Friday to close at $26.42 — yet short sellers have not blinked.
Since the previous note four days ago, the story has shifted in one important direction: the May 21 single-session surge of 31% did not shake out the shorts. Short interest has continued to climb, now reaching 16.2% of the free float — up from 15.9% on May 21 and roughly 1.5 percentage points above late-April lows near 14.7%. That is 53.4 million shares short. The week-on-week increase is just over 4%, a clear signal that shorts are rebuilding rather than covering into strength. The stock has now gained 48% over five trading sessions. Shorts who entered at lower levels are deeply underwater.
The lending market, however, offers no sign of stress. Cost to borrow has edged up 19% on the week to 0.78% annualised — still firmly in "easy borrow" territory for a stock with this profile. Availability has tightened from around 132% two weeks ago to 90% now, meaning roughly nine shares are available to borrow for every ten currently on loan. That is tighter than it was, but a long way from the near-zero levels this name has touched before. The 52-week minimum availability was 0.14%, which is the relevant comparison point. Options traders, meanwhile, have turned distinctly more bullish: the put/call ratio has dropped to 0.86, more than two standard deviations below its 20-day mean of 0.98. That is the most call-heavy reading in months, reflecting fresh demand for upside exposure rather than hedging. Taken together, the positioning picture is a split screen — shorts rebuilding with conviction while options buyers chase the rally.
The Street remains cautiously constructive, though targets have been moving the wrong way. Mizuho trimmed its target to $27 in mid-May, down from $33, while maintaining Outperform. Needham held its Buy and $31 target unchanged. The consensus mean sits at $29.24 — just 11% above Friday's close, compared to the 30%-plus upside that was implied when both targets were set. Bulls point to the 108-qubit system reaching general availability, growing customer traction, and the patent portfolio as a potential acquisition angle. Bears cite the cash burn, customer concentration, and the dilution risk embedded in years of projected losses. The EV/EBITDA multiple is deeply negative at -122x, and the price-to-book has expanded to 18x following the rally. Factor scores offer a small bright spot: EPS surprise ranks in the 82nd percentile, and EPS momentum (both 30-day and 90-day) is running above the mid-60s percentile — suggesting the earnings miss pattern is not as bad as the loss figures imply.
Institutionally, the most notable Q1 disclosures showed D. E. Shaw adding over 10 million shares (bringing its stake to 4.2%), and Jane Street and Citadel both entering new or significantly expanded positions. Vanguard entities added substantially too. That institutional accumulation at lower prices provides a base — but it also means large, sophisticated holders are now sitting on material gains heading into the June 9 print.
The last two quarterly reports are the cleanest datapoint to watch. The May 11 results produced a muted next-day move of just 0.7%, but the stock fell 12% over the following five days. The prior print saw a 5.7% drop on the day. With the stock now trading at $26.42 — near the levels at which the CTO and CFO sold in March — and June 9 fewer than two weeks away, the question is whether the options market's newfound bullishness and the shorts' continued rebuilding can coexist through earnings, or whether one side is forced to recalibrate first.
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